Fi, Fie, Fidel

Wed, Aug 18, '04

by PAUL BREWER AND PHIL AUSTIN

One of the things we have learned about cricket through trying to analyse the statistics in new ways is that losing teams tend to be statistically uncoordinated. What we mean is that by breaking down players' statistics into things like bowler's economy or strike rate, which measure two separate elements of the bowler's role, the ability to keep the score down and the ability to take wickets, it sometimes becomes obvious what the problem is.

However, sometimes it doesn?t, because the problem is also related to the makeup of the batting order. A batting order weighted toward people who score fast, but don't stay in long, doesn't want a bowling lineup where people with good economy ratings but below average strike rates are in the majority?unless it also has a bowler with a strike rate of about 12.

The kinds of adjectives one might toss out in a word association game when offered the topic of 'West Indies batting' are words like 'talented', 'fragile', 'erratic'. In South Africa, West Indies batsmen averaged about 9.38 overs per inning, scoring 3.1 runs per over. The 9.38 is comparatively poor for Test teams playing matches between October 2003 and April 2004. The 3.1 runs are mediocre, and both figures are dragged down by the tail.

On the basis of those statistics, West Indies need a bowling lineup that will keep the score down. If it takes two days to get the opposition out in doing so, it doesn't matter because the bats will be good enough to secure a draw. With some good luck, those economical bowlers will take a few more wickets and the talented top order is perfectly capable of scoring enough runs to win.

Taking the five specialist bowlers West Indies selected for the 3rd Test at Old Trafford as a working example, the grim fact is that they on average are going to bowl a side out for just over 400 runs. Here's their economy and strike rates for all Tests from the tour of South Africa to Old Trafford, inclusive:

Empirical observation has also led us to conclude that currently the maximum strike rate for a winning side is in the 65-70 range, while the economy has to be under 3.25. (We expect these figures to change as we study more data.) As one can see from this, there are three bowlers who meet at least one of those categories, and two who don't.

Fidel Edwards may bowl with determination and aggression, and set a good example of someone who refuses to be beaten, but his statistics show that he is not doing his side any favours by being selected regularly. It's not as if there might be other alternatives, as this article suggests in saying he can barely get into the Barbados side.

The pater patria of Sabermetrics, Bill James, long ago noted that bad teams not only are bad, but they honestly believe their weaknesses are strengths. Fidel Edwards was plucked from a net session into the West Indian side by Brian Lara. He has displayed the kind of character that Sir Viv Richards admires, as opposed to a more laid-back individual, such a Mervyn Dillon (famously reinstated in the side by Lara at the last Cape Town test). He is clearly a bowler of talent. But as England did with Flintoff, enduring a long apprenticeship in the Test side that may have hurt the team's chances of winning or at least drawing a few matches, so West Indies appear to be committed to Fidel. At least, given his name, it is a seemly gesture.

* * Paul Brewer and Phil Austin publish the Cricketing Sabermetrics weblog.