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Can someone provide this analysis?

I know WI are guaranteed to get at least 6 points

In reply to FanAttick

Assuming South Africa and India win their remaining matches, AND UAE and Zimbabwe lose their remaining matches, the minimum required is:

1. West Indies beat UAE by a very healthy margin, and suffers a loss to India by a very small margin.
2. For the final match day in the group Ireland (6 points) and Pakistan (4 points) will meet.
-If Ireland beats Pakistan we are through to the QF.
- If Pakistan beats Ireland, then WI, PAK, and Ireland will be on a 3 way tie for 6 points. If our net run rate is better than any of the other 3 we are through.

Our situation could be helped by:
1. Zimbabwe beating Ireland
2. West Indies beating India
3. India and SA beating Ireland and Pakistan by a large margin to worsen their run rate.

Our situation will be made worse by:
1. West Indies loosing by a large margin to India
2. South Africa or India loosing to Pakistan or Ireland

Bottom line we need to beat UAE by a wide margin. If we want to be in full control of our destiny and take Net Run Rate out of consideration we need to beat India as well.

In reply to don1

Ok. Great. Thanks. Of course rain could change the equation

In reply to don1

waaaaaaaaaa lol not going to happen

In reply to don1

Basically the race for 2nd 3rd and 4th place is between four teams: South Africa 4 pts Pakistan 2 Pts, Ireland 4pts and West Indies 4 pts. 2 pts for a win/ 1 for a tie or n/r.

South Africa have 3 games left vs Pakistan, Ireland and UAE. Form and talent we expect South Africa to win all three games, but Pakistan are very mercurial and Ireland are unafraid so let us not count them out. Ideally we want them to win all three games especially against Pakistan.

Ireland have 4 games in hand against Zimbabwe, India, South Africa and Pakistan. Ideally we just want them to beat Pakistan.

Pakistan have 3 Games in hand vs Ireland, South Africa and UAE. So Pakistan can end up with max 8 points or minimum 4 points once they beat UAE. Ideally we want them to lose to Ireland and South Africa as they will most likely beat UAE so they can finish with 4 points one below us should we beat UAE.

West Indies have 2 games in hand vs India and UAE. Ideally we would want to win both as that gives us 8 points and although not automatic qualification it is a safer position as that would mean Pakistan must win all their games and Ireland need 2 out of 4 then it would come down to NRR. Not impossible but highly improbable. A loss to India and a win vs UAE gives us 6 points and make us more reachable. Then we have to hope Pakistan lose to South Africa and Ireland.

In summation we want to win our next two games and that should get us home. If we lose to India we must hope that Pakistan lose to Ireland and South Africa. If they win won of those and beat UAE it comes down to NRR. Ireland losing 3 out of 4 will leave them on 6 as well so if Pakistan does not work out, hope for that.

So look at these fixtures:

Ireland vs South Africa March 3
Pakistan vs UAE March 4
West indies vs India - March 6
Ireland vs Zimbabwe March 7 (Big day with two matches)
Pakistan vs South Africa March 7
West indies vs UAE 14 March.
It may well come down to the last match of the group stages Ireland vs Pakistan March 15

This tournament is too long!!!

In reply to voiceofreason

Nice Analysis- it is even more simple,

Ireland threaten both Pak and WI, so from a WI perspective, we would want Ireland to loose all their matches, and big against the Saffies and Minda- this is possible, they have to play India, SA, Pak, Zim. If the win against Zim, which is possible, they will be on 6 points.

WI have to beat UAE big, and even if we get pip by India by a small margin, we will have 6 points- So it will come to RR. It is not outside the realm of possibility for India to be beat by WI, in this situation we are thru.

In reply to voiceofreason

Agreed, teams should not be waiting a over a week between games.

In reply to Emir

I think it is more likely that Pakistan lose 2 out of 3 than Ireland lose 3 out of 4 when they both have to play each other. The crucial game is Pakistan vs Ireland. I know you are a Pakistan fan but they have a steep uphill task ahead of them.

The four big games:-

Ireland vs Pakistan
South Africa vs Pakistan
Zimbabwe vs Ireland
West Indies vs UAE

In reply to voiceofreason

T

No, I am no more a Pak fan, than an Indian or SL fan. See my previous post on my favorite teams.

BTW, I don't believe this Pak team deserve to be in the QF, it will be an insult to cricket if they qualify for the type of play they are bringing in, and I am a big Misbah fan.

In reply to voiceofreason

All things considered--do we really want Windies to reach the quarterfinals? You know...they will be facing either New Zealand or Australia in the qtrs!

Simple. WI have to beat UAE. Basically maul them and the get NRR to + side. They should not lose to India badly. This should automatically take them through.

SInce you wankers get a hard on with Pakistan. They will be mauled by SA next game and then their game with Irealnd becomes crucial. If Zim beat Ireland. Both Pak and Ireland will finish up with 4 points and only one can get to 6.


All this is assuming India don't slip up against WI, ZIm or Ireland.

Provided UAE game don't get rained out. Seems like Mclean Park, Napier is getting a lot of rain

Simple. If Windies somehow pull some miracle and beat India, then they are in QF. If they don't, then they don't control their destiny.

In that case, they would need Ireland to beat Pakistan, or have South Africa crush Pakistan and their net run-rate.

In all cases, windies need a big win against UAE or everything else goes to $hit anyway...

Things could have been a LOT better if they the windies did not mess up their NRR so badly against SA. Then again, I cant say I am surprised by the poor discipline and mental aptitude on display in that game.

In reply to NewsJunkie

Wait for Pakistan to get mauled by SA.

In reply to JOJO

It is one game. Shit happens. Who would have expected NZD to lose 7 wickets to Scotland? To lose 9 in a chase of 152 vs Australia. Australia bowled out for 151. Playing in front of your home crowd is added pressure.

No team is invincible. Get to the quarters and anything is possible.

I believe West Indies need to prove their worthiness by beating India. Regardless if they reach, it is irrelevant how they got there.

In reply to voiceofreason

Agreed.

A win over India would almost guarantee 3rd, a defeat followed by a win against UAE should do anyway.

Then what? Hope for the best against even tougher matches?

Clawing to reach the quarter finals - NRR, 3 way tie for last, if we beat UAE! Really? PUKE!

What is required is a time machine.(good luck with that) go back about 3 years (really you would need to go back 20+ years... but lets work with 3).
Needed years back:
* Not just purge the administration - but also purge the administrative philosophy that forces our Players to genuflect to the WICB.
* WICB is very capable - too capable - of destroying a player at the whim of "agenda" - let us flush the insularity once and for all.
* vigorously, purposely separate WIPA from WICB. Not the cosmetic separation that is in place now. WIPA has failed too! Recent (backroom?) handshakes with empty or vacant contracts have sent players into a tighter spiral. Sure the big picture of WIPA is on point, but the details and the minutia of how to get there seems weak.

Oh glorious WI Cricket - what was is distant. What is, now dreadful. What will be.... who can speak of hope, with more of the same?

Oh how de mighty have fallen. Resorting to hoping other teams lose to qualify. We need to take our destiny in our own hands and win de next 2 games weather permitting and let de chips fall where dey may

WI will win next two games putting them in the quarters.
Then is which team is the best on that given day.

In reply to positiveg

Next one is against India.

Why all the trouble for qualification.
India will want the WI to qualify. So don't be too surprised IF India pull a SA against WI mo money for BCCI.

In reply to rillo

posts like this make we want to slap unnu skunts

In reply to gvenkat

So DonD says what I have been saying 2 days ago.

With PAK beating ZIM the easiest way for us to the QF is IRE beating PAK (assuming we beat UAE).

Assumption is UAE loses to everyone, SA wins all the rest, and IND wins all the rest.

Saffies mauled Ireland...net run rate edging ever so slightly in our direction

In reply to FanAttick

In all liklihood Windies RR will improve - (if they play UAE to form), while Irelands may get worse. Windies already have a big RR advantage over Ireland.

So if Windies avoid being masacred by India I'd say they are pretty much through (baring a nightmare againast UAE)

qualifying #4 in the group is like one foot out of the worldcup cause you will play the #1 team in the other group

In reply to navindesigns

qualifying #3 means the same too.

I agree with gvenkat. Don't be too sure about SA mauling Pak.

In reply to analyst-kid

SA will maul Pak. Mark my words.