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Cat 5 (back to Cat 4) Hurricane Matthew
From NOAA
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area about
1500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands are showing some
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while the low moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Windward Islands,the southeastern and south-central Caribbean Sea, as well as the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Guyana is NOT in the Caribbean!!!
In reply to Larr Pullo
tell sha again.
In reply to Larr Pullo
Neither is Barbados nor Trinidad.(Correct Toney)
Please read what di man wrote
Yuh know what as well as means?
In reply to Larr Pullo
No wonder the muddies are not represented on the WI limited overs team.
In reply to Chrissy
Neither is Barbados nor Trinidad !
Could have fooled me.
In reply to Toney
Both are in di Atlantic
Tropical Storm Matthew will impact Windward islands early Thursday
I'm betting this will veer North by Wed because they usually do. This means impact should occur around Northern Windwards or Southern Leewards..
In reply to Larr Pullo
Pay attention
She never said it was
In reply to imusic
All I saying is allyuh pay attention
In reply to imusic
Forgot the comma after Caribbean
This is the word from chief meteorologist at the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (Met Office) Shakeer Baig, and chief executive officer (CEO) at the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (ODPM) Dr Stephen Ramroop.
A storm is NOT coming
In reply to Narper
Dr. Jeff Masters and NHC are by no means arm chair met folks.
From NOAA
pressure located about 700 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward near 20 mph.
Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the
northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty
winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over
the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles
beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
From NOAA
A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 11N.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 11N to 17N between 48W and 55W. The precipitation
pattern continues to become more organized. It is likely that a
tropical depression or a tropical storm may form later today if
this weather system continues to become more organized. The
forecast movement is to the WNW-to-W about 20 mph. Please
monitor the progress of this weather system if you have any
interests that are in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea,
including the northern coast of South America. Heavy rains and
strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are
expected to spread across the Windward Islands and sections of
the southern Lesser Antilles beginning tonight and continuing
into Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is high. Gale
wind conditions are forecast in 24 hours, within 120 NM N
semicircle of a 1006 mb low pressure center near 13N57W, and sea
heights are forecast to range from 10 feet to 13 feet. Please
refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.
Graphic
In reply to Chrissy
Could be a Cat 1 by Thursday but already starting to slant north. Southern Windwards looking safe...ish.
In reply to Tagwa1
Yep
In reply to Tagwa1
Going west again - now Tropical Storm Matthew
In reply to Tagwa1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016
...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 60.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Folks, I been saying this for a while now. Them tropical wave, depression and storm causing more damage lately because from what I've seen, they've been dumping far more rain than hurricanes. Right now, vincy done under the gun because is rain none stop for the last 5 hours.
Rivers threatening to overflow again like it did on that christmas even night in 2013. One death already claimed with a stone breaking away and rolling over a teenage boy. Land slides done happening all ready. The winds is the least of our problems. Vincy soil too soft, it can't tek persistent rain. When it rains in vincy, it does pour!!
The southern windwards naw safe at all!! The Grenadines islands will be alright because all roads lead back to the sea and the soil is like cliff. Some places if yo find ah foot ah top soil yo do good.
EDIT: Vincy on lock down tomorrow and no school for the rest of the week.
The winds howling in now, lort.
In reply to jen
In reply to jen
Reports from St. Vincent that one secondary school boy lost his life due to storm-related movement of a boulder at his home.
In reply to Chrissy
Good call bro
I've been watching some of the damage - real glad so few folks were killed.
Look at the size of this system - leff those who want to ignore serious weather.
In reply to Chrissy
993 mb pressure already!!!
In reply to Chrissy
Couldn't believe when i Saw on satellite how much ground that storm was covering, geez. The thing been covering from bim down to grenada and way up in the north, for hours satellite had a big patch of purple and white. That was one intense storm, from my calculations, it rained for about 10 hours none stop last night.
In reply to jen
I was on the phone with my folks in Bim last night and they could barely hear me - rain fell from Puerto Rico to T&T.
Leff di eediots. I will always post storm warnings because life is all we've got. Who vex loss!
In reply to jen
Massive Matthew
this looks like it could be category three before it hits Ja.
In reply to Chrissy
That is massive. Covers a whole lot of ground.
When it reaches the ridge it is expected to go north. Could go to the east of Jamaica. That is the best case scenario. That still is going to bring a lot of rain.
In reply to archangel
Met Office warning for Jamaica
Oh skites dem saying Cat3 Monday - Jamaica.
In reply to Chrissy
Yes Lord! I told u it was gonna hit Category 3! This is a huge hurricane to boot. This is a major disaster about to go down of Ivan like proportions. I just pray it does not make landfall as that could be even worse.
MATTHEW CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Matthew
could become a major hurricane later today or tonight.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
In reply to pelon
It is this year's fifth Atlantic hurricane, but it looks set to become the most damaging so far.
Hurricane Matthew, the 13th named storm of the season, is likely to strengthen as it approaches Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti.
As of Friday morning, the storm was located about 220km to the north of Curacao. A tropical storm watch is in force for the so-called "ABC islands" (Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao) located in the southern Caribbean.
Matthew is not expected to make landfall in South America, but its large circulation has prompted some concerns around the coastal fringes of Colombia and Venezuela.
Matthew is currently packing winds of around 160 kilometres an hour, making it a Category 2 storm. Strengthening is forecast throughout the weekend and the system is likely to be upgraded to a Category 3 within the next 48 hours.
Matthew left one person dead in St Vincent on its passage into the Caribbean. The hurricane now poses a threat to the Greater Antilles.
More here
In reply to dale_staple
Bro Cat3 is Gilbert not Ivan. Ivan missed us.
My real worry is dat Palisadoes Road, Port Royal, Harbour View and Portmore. South, South-East and North East gwin tek a real lick.
In reply to Chrissy
This thing is looking ferocious. LINK IMG
Please do everything to protect yourself if you are in JA. A direct hit could be devastation. DO NOT underestimate this system.
In reply to pelon
Damn. This is serious.
Chance to hit US East Coast later on next week, forecasters did say 1 major hurricane will hit US mainland this season. I shall go stock up on food, water and essentials, my gut feeling on this is not good. Be safe brethren and sistren where ever ye may be.
In reply to mikesiva
At 13.6N 71.3W the next 12 - 24 hours will determine whether it will hit Ja directly or give Ja a glancing blow. If it does not turn north sharply in the next 12 hours it will be the latter.
In reply to Runs
My folks say Eastern seaboard
In reply to Headley
I'd settle fi dat
In reply to Chrissy
Stay safe Chrissy.. I hope this don't come the FL way..
Stay safe everyone. If that storm makes it into the Atlantic, who knows
In reply to gvenkat
Thanks.
Should miss Florida - not sure about the Carolinas
Matthew has slowed down to blow wow!
Now Cat4
In reply to Chrissy
I don't think that is good news...
//
In reply to Chrissy
The satellite photos show this thing getting stronger. Thankfully we are on its weaker side otherwise we would be doomed.
In reply to dale_staple
We're on the worst side bro - the northern quadrant - this is going to mash up St Thomas, Portland, St Mary, Harbour View, di Palisadoes strip, Port Royal, Kingston & St Andrew, Portmore and right through to the other side. Nuff nuff homes going down wid dis one.
Jamaica is about to get a rhatid lick.
In reply to Ewart
Bro dis is frightening news.
Rass..i am nervous now.
When Ivan hit us here in St Bess it made Gilbert look like boy.
This looks scary.
In reply to Chrissy
This will be worse than gilbert and ivan.
In reply to dale_staple
I cannot conceive worse than Ivan
Stay safe my yardie people.
I've been through a Cat 5 - Hurricane David. No one wants to go through that. It can throw you back to the dark ages.
The only glimmer of hope now would be that the system continues on a western track for another 16 hrs - bypassing JA or at least just west of JA.
At this stage, it is a direct hit
Please, look out for the elderly within your neighborhoods. Secure your property, then seek to offer assistance to those less capable.
NOW (for the 10th time):
* Double check batteries, water supplies, canned goods and most important your first aid kit.
* Gather all important documents and place them in zip lock freezer bags - then store in a safe place.
* Take your smartphone and capture images of your property and contents for small or major insurance claims.
Peps, it is serious.
In reply to dale_staple
Well given what happened in Colombia and they are so far from the main storm, I have to agree. I'm hearing 8 - 24 inches of rain which means nuff homes coming down dem mountains and nuff on di flat flooding out.
In reply to Chrissy
Does Jamaica have a hurricane shelter system ?
In reply to bimbo
Won't be so bad for St Bess unless she turns much later than anticipated. You should get mostly outer bands with plenty rain and winds. Same fi Westmoreland.
Dis gwin real bad overall.
In reply to Commie
Yes but lots of folks don't want to leave home. If I were anywhere near waterfront on the South, East and right through to the exit in Portland/St Mary, or in a shaky house in the mountains/hills, I'd be moving into the shelter tomorrow.
Kingston and St Andrew gwin tek worse licks than Gilbert.
In reply to Commie
I called my family in JA. Bim went thru Tomas when it was a TS and that was a nightmare. The things you take for granted you realize quickly are essential to living.
In reply to pelon
A slow moving buzz saw is what this looks like. Passing next to JA like this is on track to do is as bad as it gets.
In reply to nick2020
It will go back down to Cat 3 before approaching and hitting or skirting.
Dis is a bad one.
Allyuh turn on RJR 94.5 - good discussion with the experts.
In reply to Chrissy
That is a mistake.
Hurricane David 95% of the houses here lost their roofs.
Now of course that cant happen here as the building code changed drastically and noone builds without roof ties for example but this possession madness and fear of loss of commodities dissapears as soon as your life starts being in danger.
Hopefully this shit breaks up or veers clear because High sustained winds can be hell.
In reply to Commie
That is not the only reason why people stay home. I have been told by my family they do not want to go to a shelter to be surrounded by strangers. So we tend to take refuge by a family member far away from our possessions.
I think a familiar place surrounded by familiar people brings a sense of comfort in the face of such uncertainty.
In reply to nick2020
Where you think they going end up when house gets blown away ?
In reply to Commie
At a family member with a house still standing.
If none exists God help us.
In reply to nick2020
Have you actually been through a hurricane ?
In reply to Ewart
This from Jeff Masters sums up my real fears.
If this hits Kingston dawg nyam our suppa.
From Jeff Masters
Here
Stay safe my Jamaican peeps Hurricane Matthew should not be taken slightly, remember he sat off Bim for a few hours slowing down drastically and gaining more strength prepare for plenty rain from every direction possible.
In reply to Commie
A direct hit no.
In reply to Commie
Big mistake and it will be repeated.
In reply to Chrissy
150MPH as of 8PM
Only "good" news is that it took an ever so slight west south west dip.
Latest
In reply to nick2020
Let me tell you something.
When your roof gone, and your life is in danger, the idea is not to be with family. The only thing that strikes your mind is to be safe. Not one possession will matter. People who havent experienced that dread of thinking you are going to die ont understand it.
People have to know where the Hurricane shelter is and worse case the route to get to it if they decide to tough out early stages.
If you dont have a concrete roof basement with secure doors and windows, you get out.
A Cat 5 will lift you up physically and carry you away. A Cat 4 wont be far behind.
In reply to pelon
It needs to begin curving north fast. The longer it takes to turn the worse for us. On the other hand...if it misses the system that will pull it north we should be ok. But we will see.
In reply to dale_staple
Nah. The best bet is west side of JA.
if I had to bet a dollar, I would say this baby will track west of JA (maybe foolish or optimistic or both) - as all the pros say east.
either way - take this thing serious!
This system has moved from Tropical Storm to Category 4 status in 12 hours. That is scary.
I experienced Gilbert and Sandy but I must admit this one has me a bit scared.
In reply to pelon
Just said the same here. the next 5-8 hours will decide if it goes west of Ja. I am hoping it does. Not a good thing to be on the NE quadrant of a hurricane.
In reply to Commie
I have never been thru it but I understand. But since you fully understand how irrational people are in voting for Trump then you can understand that right?
In reply to nick2020
You need to stop mixing topic. Thats how people get headaches. Like mixing drinks.
In reply to pelon & dale_staple
The best bet is don't hit Kingston- the right side is stronger
In reply to Chrissy
Amen sister Chrissy. Thanks for the early warning. We are regular storm trackers here.
In reply to dale_staple
Check out dis brute
In reply to Chrissy
2 eyes?
In reply to Chrissy
Are there preparations going on in Yard?
In reply to Curtis
Whole heap - over 100 shelters - buses for people to go , all interests prepared but guess what - if this hits close to Kingston all bets are off- thousands will be in danger - a major sea surge and all hell breaks loose.
In reply to pelon
With most intense storms you will see what is called a "wobble" as it makes its forward progression.
Winds seem to be now at 165 mph. Big Cat 5
In reply to embsallie
Yep now Cat 5
In reply to Chrissy
Damn! Alyuh stay safe!
In reply to Chrissy
How is the dissemination of information? Are people heeding the warnings?
In reply to black
Well all the supermarkets were full of people and so were the gas stations
Stay south west Matthew - go West
He has grown so massive so quickly!
Looks like the east coast of Florida from Miami through to Palm beach is now in the cone of concern.
In reply to Yamfoot
Nice warm water in the Western Caribbean Sea, that has been pretty much left undisturbed for the better part of the season. Matthew is now feasting and fattening itself.
In reply to Yamfoot
In reply to Yamfoot
JA is in for the lick of our life.
There will be a huge loss of life, infrastructure and property.
In reply to Chrissy
More here
Just tek a look at the damage in Colombia and this storm is miles away from them. This is going to be a disaster of epic proportions
In reply to Chrissy
Latest models shows the storm center may be off shore. Thats better news.
In reply to dale_staple
On the BBC website
In reply to dale_staple
I guess but I see no good news for now - this is massive even if he decides to stay south of us. This SOB is going across the island direct hit or not. Man I got up to go walk Mona Reservoir but it's raining here already.
In reply to Chrissy
I did the same thing to do my short route. Had to abort it and do a mad sprint back home.
In reply to Chrissy
no words necessary...
you just make sure you have not forgotten anything that you need.
My prayers for you all in yard. Prep as much as you can and hope it is not a direct hit or it fizzles out.
Stay safe!!!
I want to see all my bredrens back here soon.
It is likely to weaken significantly before it gets to Jamaica. Still dangerous though.
Went on the road - don't need a thing but mi fast - the line to enter the Megamart complex is now near West King's House.
My biggest worry is already a problem - Palisadoes strip under water. Wait fi dem boulders to dislodge. Port Royal folks better move now and no one could mek me stay at Norman Manley Airport from today.
In reply to Commie
How yuh mean significantly - they are saying Cat3 which is a major hurricane
Of the seven possible tracks given, five tracks go through Jamaica. The other two has it going west of yard but close enough to still cause problems.
In reply to Chrissy
I suppose he means in the context of where it was. But this thing is no joke. I am going to WALK. To an electronics store round the road to get a better fuse for the generator and then WALK to this hardware store to get some grout.
I will then come home and then set up my "hurricane station". First aid, batteries, radio, lamps etc all on a table on standby. Going to amp up the freezer and put in some bottles of water to freeze starting tomorrow. Gonna cook off the chicken from today and put it away. Plumber is here doing a once around. So all is well.
Jamaican should prepare for a Cat3 given the forecasts right now. Even if your home remains intact you may not be able to get to stores and supermarkets for days and there could be no electricity as well.
Do the best you can to prepare and stay safe.
In reply to Chrissy
Still very dangerous but not Cat5.
Cat5 is catastrophic.
Ive seen cows blowing away in a Cat5.
small blessings.
In reply to Commie
Mahogany trees got blown down and roofs ripped off in Barbados and it was only a tropical storm.
In reply to Hants
The roofs are expected because Barbados hasnt got alot of hurricane experience. Its about the building code usually.
In reply to Commie
Like most islands Barbados has many people living in houses that are not up to hurricane code. In the construction business people constantly advertise that the houses they are building are up to hurricane code but there are still several people out there living in houses that will flatten even in a Tropical Storm.
In reply to nick2020
You need a Cat5 to devastate you unfortunately for people to learn.
Now dominica gets flooded but roofs wont go. People actually now overengineer on builds.
In reply to Chrissy
I've never been in a hurricane before, the closest one ever got to me was Houston.
How are you feeling right now?
Are you feeling cautious or fearful?
In reply to nick2020
the biggest dangers from hurricane are ,flooding and landslides.
In reply to black
Bro I'm eating a nice yellow tail snapper wid breadfruit and avocado and freshly squeezed ortanique juice.
I've stocked up since last Saturday - anything south of Barbados usually means serious problems for Jamaica.
Experts tell me the eye will miss us - I'm cool preparing for the post-Matthew inconveniences.
If I get tired of dem, I'll jump on a plane and chill in Miami. Sis and her hubby already want me to drop everything and come. They are way more scared than me. This too will pass.
Alyuh hold strong. Please be prepared and worry about your safety. Help those who need it.
_ryan
In reply to Chrissy
Hope so....
In reply to dale_staple
Palisadoes strip open again - Port Royal folks can move up and down
In reply to Chrissy
Snapper is the only fish you talk about.
Stay positive!
In reply to Chrissy
There should be a luxury tax.
Palisadoes Strip
In reply to Commie
The people who can afford it will learn. I do not know what happens in your part of the woods but some people use small time carpenters to build a house brick by brick (board by board) over years. Too many do not even insure.
I never understand why people do not insure a house and its contents. That must be factored into ownership. When I become a big shot like powen I making sure I insure.
In reply to Chrissy
Good. I see where they say the eye and strongest winds will miss us. Thats great news. But we will know for sure on Saturday evening.
In reply to nick2020
I never understand why people do not insure a house and its contents. That must be factored into ownership. When I become a big shot like powen I making sure I insure.
You just made a case for insurers to not insure houses.
Insurers are reluctant to insure houses in flood prone areas.
In reply to dale_staple
More here
In reply to black
normal homeowners insurance does not cover the peril of 'FLOOD' flood is deemed too devastating .
In reply to camos
True, that makes it harder to get coverage from those that offer it.
In reply to Headley
See when yuh nuh need big house and fancy car yuh can eat snapper
In reply to Hants
sound advice
In reply to nick2020
The learning part starts with Planning Approval.
If you don't get Approval you can't get a bank loan or financing. Thats how building codes get enforced. If someone is doing the cash bit by bit thing and they avoid the codes then they take a risk and unfortunately they fork.
They might get away with it for a lifetime or just a few years. It's a risk.
I still maintain this one will head WEST of JA
In reply to powen001
Bro I cyan do anything more. What is to be is to be.
In reply to Chrissy
what's happening now? yuh got backup power to post if blackout during storm? will you be leaving your place?
In reply to Curtis
My place safer than Pearl - not leaving. No back up power but if we're without power for too long I'll get a small generator
In reply to pelon
I hope you're right. It has weakened a bit.
history
Matthew stopped on a dime - now moving at 2mph. Quite a stall.
In reply to Yamfoot
Amazing
In reply to Chrissy
Have you heard from my good friend Samwells?
If you hear from he tell he to stay safe.
Be safe.
In reply to Chrissy
He's getting ready to turn north. He is going through an eyewall replacement cycle as well. We have to be really watchful now. The next 6-12 hours will determine a lot.
In reply to Courtesy
Tenks
In reply to dale_staple
But he's now going South at 2mph
In reply to Chrissy
Bad sign. Bad for JA that is. What it confirms is the system has hit a ridge or sheer and will commence a northern (slight even) track, due to a large upper-level low pressure system over east central US. If it remained fast moving it would go west of JA. the next 8 hrs of movement will be critical.
Be safe all.
Chrissy: Observe the "walls" - you can see the only way to go is UP. Not good! If it slows, it loses Western track.....
HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND MUCH OF HAITI
In reply to pelon
Check dis
of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides
In reply to Chrissy
Haiti just needs 4 inches of rain to have epic mudslides..
This is a pending disaster for Haiti
In reply to Chrissy
When is it expected to be over Jamaica? Hopefully not in the dead of night...
In reply to FanAttick
Oh no! Look at the radar image and see how haiti is going to get the brunt of this brute.
In reply to FanAttick
Sorry Fanattick, it will be a night into day storm.
In reply to dale_staple
The real arrival is Monday afternoon but we will begin to feel it from tomorrow late morning/afternoon.
In reply to Chrissy
It has completely stalled now. No movement.
In reply to dale_staple
would love to see video of how it affects the sea where it is now stalled
In reply to Curtis
Me too. that should be some show.
GEOS-13 Satellite down. No Sat images
Virtually stationary
In reply to pelon
What if he moves NW instead of North
In reply to Chrissy
Its moving NNW at 7 mph. Haiti is going to get crushed. We are out of the cone of projection for the storm. We will get the tropical force winds and lots of rain, but we have dodged a serious bullet here.
Haiti did something to someone in its lifetime. I swear.
In reply to dale_staple
Rubbish - it's all about size - Cuba and Haiti get hit more because of the size of their islands.
Moving NW at5.00amUS time
In reply to Chrissy
Yeah so I see. We should start feeling the effects by later today into tomorrow at this speed and track.
Forecaster have a much more favorable track this morning. Unfortunately this means more towards Haiti.
AT this point a "split" right between the two countries is the best hope.
Summary page for Matthew
Track
Keeping a close eye here in the TCI.
In reply to Cheeks
Yuh better - at this time, it's looking more like you.
In reply to pelon
Still moving NW - I am not relaxing yet although our experts are saying lots of rain, but more Ivan than Gilbert destruction.
In reply to Chrissy
The turn to NNE should take place later today. I hope.
In reply to dale_staple
Moving west at 3 mph. Its certainly taking its own sweet time deciding what it wants to do.
In reply to Cheeks
I was telling my wife TCI and Cayman Islands have been overlooked because of size.
In reply to dale_staple
Make one think this is a storm with malicious intentions.
In reply to Headley
You sure right about that.
Still travelling NW though. This fella Matthew really toying with the Northern Caribbean.
In reply to Cheeks
The outerbands are here - no windyet but heavy rain and nuff lightning and thunder.
In reply to Chrissy
Ok. I've stocked up but ....my residence on this pancake called Providenciales is toooooo close to the beach. I'm heading to 'higher' ground depending on how this plays out.
In reply to Cheeks
Higher is relative is TCI for sure
In reply to Commie
Yup..you know the deal.
In reply to Cheeks
All jokes aside..
Dont wait and see how it plays out...
move inland all now.
In reply to Cheeks
Go higher bro - right now
In reply to Chrissy
Matthew brought a great Yardie home
In reply to powen001
I have a place arranged. ie my office and it takes like 5 mins to get there.
This is moving so slowly...I will make the decision sometime tomorrow morning. If it keeps its NW track..then I think we will be spared...but if the projected NE turn happens..then we're in a for a beating.
Jah know...this lil rock floods in 10 mins.
Pictures Please
I have a professional interest in big drains (storm drains) and sea surge retaining structures (like the revetment constructed of boulders on the Palisadoes Road). I would be grateful if posters in Kingston and St. Andrew could post, direct me to, or PM me any post Hurricane Matthew pictures of storm drains or the Palisadoes Road. Please remember to identify the location.
A little history and geology of the Palisadoes Road.
In reply to Headley
I will ask di experts fi yuh
In reply to Chrissy
Thank you and keep safe.
Still NW.
the storm has not moved since 5 pm!
In reply to camos
Nah sah ....it move 0.2 deg W and bout 0.1 N. Still at 5mph.
In reply to Cheeks
If I were in TCI, I'd be on my way to Miami
In reply to Chrissy
I'm hoping for continued Westward ways to confound all the models....mek Matthew sputter somewhere over water between the Yucatan and Western Cuba.
Oh well...a man can dream.
In reply to Cheeks
matthew is parked along 75W.
In reply to camos
At 5pm he was at 74.8 W I tekkin every 1/10000 deg he moves West yes.
In reply to Cheeks
it is very dangerous, moving too slowly,get a feeling there will be a dramatic turn.
Spanish Town Road, Marcus Garvey Drive, Seaview Gardens, Hagley Park Road, Constant Spring Road, and Chelsea Avenue were among the areas of the Corporate Area where heavy flooding was reported yesterday.
The Meteorological Service, which maintained its hurricane warning yesterday, said the parishes of Portland, St Thomas, St Mary, Kingston, St Andrew, St Catherine, and St Ann are the parishes which are expected to get the brunt of the rain and winds from the powerful Category four hurricane.
More here
Chrissy...what's happening?
In reply to Cheeks
Moving North now at 5mph - wind moving in slowly here - heavy clouds. Matthew will not inflict a direct hit on either Haiti or Jamaica. Looks like Guantanamo Bay.
That said he's passing close enough to us to inflict some serious blows.
In reply to Curtis
Pleasant night - light rain most of the night - don't know if there was any lightning or thunder but doubt it. Very dark clouds around - wind picking up.
It's going to be a night storm now because it's moving real slow. Our weather folks say to expect wind around 100mph. No direct hit for JA or Haiti.
In reply to mikesiva
Bro dem places flood during afternoon showers.
In reply to Chrissy
DWL!!! Here comes the big rains. The satellite pics dont look good at all. Poor Haiti being ravaged by the eastern side of the storm. The next 24 hours will be very interesting to say the least.
Gone down to category 3. Going back up to 4 later today. Outer bands in 2 hours.
In reply to dale_staple
Great news for the Jamaican economy. The impact should not be as devastating as it looked.
We maybe able to continue on the path to 5% growth.
Rising oil prices is the major worry.
Waking up to overcast conditions here in Kingston. No rain, no breeze. Sun peeping through the clouds. Not going to last, heavy clouds rolling in.
Heading down to our office in a minute, make sure wifey covered up all the computers.
Binge watching Luke Cage later and waiting on Matthew
In reply to LBW375
Binge watching Luke Cage later and waiting on Matthew
Did that binge over the weekend. Enjoyed it.
In reply to Cheeks
Got to episode 11 then work interrupted
Matthew: looking like ANY western track in the next 6 hours would spell trouble for JA, however all models predict a NE or dead North track, thus treading the needle between Haiti and Jamaica
East Coast will still take a beating.
In reply to dale_staple
Word is tropical storm winds, torrential rain and very high sea surge - will be night time given the slow speed of Matthew.
In reply to Chrissy
I hate storms that make a night impact. Its hard to see outside. I remember when i had to face dean in 2007. I had just moved out of my family home and I was on my own for the first time. I was living in my now aunt in law's home in portmore. That was a heck of an experience.
HERE COMES THE RAIN.
In reply to dale_staple
I was telling someone the same thing yesterday about hurricanes that hit at night.
In reply to dale_staple
Hurricane history of the three islands
Good read.
Jamaicas hurricane history
Despite being in a part of the Caribbean prone to hurricanes, Jamaica has suffered only three direct hits by hurricanes since 1950:
Hurricane Charlie of 1951. This Category 3 storm plowed along the length of the island, killing 154 people. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, this was Jamaicas deadliest hurricane (NHC lists the death toll at 259.)
Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. The mighty Category 3 storm also took a path over the length of the island with sustained winds of 125 winds, killing 49 and causing over $2 billion in damageby far Jamaicas most expensive hurricane on record.
Hurricane Sandy of 2012. Sandy hit the island as a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds, killing two and causing $100 million in damage. About 70% of the residents of Jamaica lost power.
Hurricanes have a funny way of taking 11th-hour course changes that spare the island a direct hit. Category 5 Hurricane Allen took an odd wobble around the island. Category 4 Hurricane Dean of 2007 was headed straight for the island, but also wobbled just to the south, keeping the dangerous northern eyewall just south of Jamaica. Dean caused plenty of damage, though, bringing sustained Category 2 hurricane winds to the coast. Damage was estimated at $350 million, and 3 people died.
Perhaps the remarkable turn of an approaching hurricane was by Hurricane Ivan 2004, as it headed directly for the island with 145 mph Category 4 winds. Ivan took a sudden turn 35 miles from the island, traced out an exact outline of the island's coast 35 miles offshore, then resumed its previous track. In the Jamaica Observer,
In reply to Chrissy
Bwoy...Ivan was the most stunning thing I ever saw. I mean it really went along the coast and never made landfall. To date..no one understands how or why that happened.
In reply to dale_staple
Even in di Rumshop folks were beyond shocked - it was heading straight for us
In reply to Chrissy
I was thinking the same thing....
I understand the storm's expected to hit about 2am. Is that correct?
In reply to Chrissy
Meteorologists are in agreement that hurricanes don't like ganga smoke.
In reply to mikesiva
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
I still don't know the exact time - it's been moving with regularity.
I notice he's regained strength
In reply to mikesiva
Tracking Matthew
15.9N 74.8W at 2pm Monday
195 miles at 6 mph = 32.5 hours
If Matthew continues at 6mph it will pass Ja around 2pm Monday plus 32.5 hours = 10.30pm Tuesday.
However there is a good chance it will move more quickly as it approaches land.
In reply to dale_staple
Bajans do not understand how fortunate they were when Ivan went against all models and missed.
I remember being in the supermarket for hours getting ready for the worst.
Then it swung and Grenada knows how the story ended.
In reply to nick2020
The Caymans as well and several parts of our South coast
In reply to Headley
In other words dis place shut down until Wednesday. Heavy rain in St Mary, Portland and St Thomas now
The Mighty Matthew!
Lawks 'im moving slow
In reply to Chrissy
ummm..... Rev. Al?
//
In reply to Ewart
U also remember the "prayers" of only Al.
In reply to Ewart
now picking up speed 7mph
In reply to Cheeks
I believe there are areas in Provo which may be as high as 15 - 30 ft above sea level but a strong surge would cover about 4-5 ft like Ivan did to the Cayman Islands. Go to high ground, preferably on the second floor.
Psssssssssssssssst! Tropical Storm Warning now.
In reply to Chrissy
"Normal" service should resume on Thursday.
Just noticed the change from hurricane to TS. Dat is the difference between losing power for 3 hours vs 3 days.
The radar showing that we are about to get some major wind and rain shortly. Hang on to your hats kids. Tonight will be rough. Especially in St. Thomas, Portland and St. Mary.
In reply to dale_staple
Several US states have declared a state of emergency starting with Florida.
It is going to be deadly in Haiti tonight.
We can expect torrential rains without the hurricane force winds.
I'll settle for that.
all them churches in Ja can claim they serve a purpose.
In reply to camos
Easy now. But stay safe. Remember though, physical safety is not the only safety to be concerned about.
In reply to Outswinger
thanks bro but I am not in Ja.
In reply to Chrissy
Bwoy what a beast of a hurricane. I cannot believe it. I mean if that thing had just wobbled west it woulda been curtains for us.
In reply to Chrissy
Can it thread the needle and spare Haiti a direct hit?
In reply to FanAttick
I'm hoping for that
In reply to FanAttick
Fan the track is for it to go NNE...so here's hoping the stronger winds stay off track. The problem is that its still going to get all of the rain from the eastern bands.
In reply to Chrissy
Of course, that hurricane history was only since 1950...as you know, Jamaica suffered from a string of hurricanes in the 1780s, one of which destroyed Savanna-la-mar with a storm surge.
More on that warning downgrade
In reply to mikesiva
De Eastern portion of Jamaica will experience hurricane force gusts for at least 12 hrs. Maybe dey shudn have downgraded de warning which may allow some people to become complacent
In reply to Maispwi
Truth is they were forced to do it because most of us use NHC. Rain and wind overnight - nothing dramatic so far - certainly not where I am - word is that things are much worse on the southeast, parts of the south and northeast coasts.
Dis island is so freaking lucky it isn't funny. Leh we spare a thought for the folks in Haiti, TCI and the Bahamas.
Wind picking up now - can see nuff rain coming.
In reply to Chrissy
Sources say that Matthew causing a lot of this...
In reply to Chrissy
Doh forget Satno Domingo smack in de north east quadrant of Matthew
In reply to Chrissy
Truth is that people do not and will never understand natural phenomenon. Try as we might to study, the full will never be understood. All we can do is just be thankful that we were spared the full wrath and to pray for those who have not been so fortunate.
We cannot cuss government because frankly speaking on Friday evening we were all fretting. But the wobbling and slow movement of the storm helped a lot.
In reply to Maispwi
Serious ting dat - they are teking a rhatid lick.
In reply to FanAttick
Western Haiti will get a direct lick - send all the good vibes you can for those poor people.
Another system forming to the east of Barbados.
Link Text
In reply to Jaffo
Saw dat but it isn't spinning up to now
In reply to Chrissy
Yeah I realise. Wonder if it will get more organised. Will still bring some rain to Barbados though.
In reply to Chrissy
[/b]
It's not luck : it''s the number of churches with the large number of prayers praying for diliverance that might saved Jamaica. You should find a Church near you and give the people dem a hand
Back to work folks
In reply to Toney
Size and location matter. Using your perspective,explain the crime
In reply to Chrissy
Matthew at 8:00 AM
Location - on top of Haiti.
In reply to Headley
First Cat4 to hit Haiti -too sad
In reply to Headley
From: Matthew 8
When he had entered Capernaum, a centurion came forward to him, appealing to him, 6 Lord, my servant is lying paralyzed at home, suffering terribly. 7 And he said to him, I will come and heal him.
8 But the centurion replied, Lord, I am not worthy to have you come under my roof, but only say the word, and my servant will be healed. 9 For I too am a man under authority, with soldiers under me. And I say to one, Go, and he goes, and to another, Come, and he comes, and to my servant,3 Do this, and he does it.
10 When Jesus heard this, mhe marveled and said to those who followed him, Truly, I tell you, with no one in Israel4 have I found such faith. 11 I tell you, many will come from east and west and recline at table with Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob in the kingdom of heaven, 12 while the sons of the kingdom will be thrown into the outer darkness. In that place there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.
13 And to the centurion Jesus said, Go; let it be done for you sas you have believed. And the servant was healed at that very moment.
//
Something else may be coming right behind.
In reply to Ewart
Matthew 8 - how appropriate
Yes sah I do not doubt that faith can move mountains, mankind and even hurricane Matthew.
Sadly, I am not possessed of such faith, but that is for another time.
New Providence may take a direct hit - bare panic in Nassau. Allyuh tek care yuh hear.
In reply to Chrissy
Four reported dead in Dom Rep
In reply to mikesiva
They're facing horrific rain. Nassau will take a direct hit - first time in eight decades. That will be a disaster.
In reply to Headley
//
In reply to Chrissy
Really? I thought they were in hurricane alley and the Bahamas are always pounded.
In reply to XFactor
Not New Providence.
Unnu stop following the storm because it pass unnu yard?
In reply to camos
Nah - mi in touch wid mi sis in Miami and a good friend in South Carolina. Generators run out in Miami; gas stations running out and dem on TS warning.
In reply to Chrissy
Lawd ,I have to call my friend in Charleston SC.
In reply to camos
Damn look at Eastern Cuba - that is serious damage.
We get wey jus like Yaad. Feeling it for the peeps who were not so lucky this time around..but grateful for my own family wid two lil pickney. A major hurricane is a terrifying experience for kids
In reply to Cheeks
Well Yard under pelting rain right now - way more than when Matthew was closer - glad you're OK
Where is Gvenkitty - batten down brother and stay safe
In reply to Cheeks
was thinking you guys took a hit.
In reply to camos
"Rescue workers in Haiti are struggling to reach parts of the country cut off by the most powerful Caribbean hurricane in nearly a decade. The destruction wrought by Hurricane Matthew has forced Haiti's presidential election this weekend to be postponed, officials say. Thousands have been displaced and at least 10 people have died. The US states of Florida and South Carolina are bracing for the storm, which is nearing the Bahamas."
More here
"At least 11 deaths were blamed on the powerful storm during its week-long march across the Caribbean, five of them in Haiti. But with a key bridge washed out, roads impassable and phone communications down, the western tip of Haiti was isolated and there was no full accounting of the dead and injured in Matthews wake."
And here
In reply to mikesiva
It's a mess - part of Eastern Cuba is pretty bad and several islands in the Bahamas took/are taking a lick.
Watching Nassau and Paradise island now.
My Miami sis put up the shutters and she and her hubby headed to California. They left second son and his girlfriend to watch the place. I think Miami will escape unless whe Matthew makes that U turn he heads back for them.
Hope he doesn't go through Cuba and head our way.
In reply to Chrissy
"The Caymans as well and several parts of our South coast"
I was watching a documentary by Simon Reeve on the BBC entitled something like "The Caribbean with Simon Reeve", and one of the places he visited was the Caymans. There, he saw houses that still hadn't been fixed after Hurricane Ivan, and described the horrible smell of damp in the houses of ordinary Caymanians. He spoke to a retired civil servant whose pension couldn't cover the mortgage, or pay for the damage to her house, and was facing eviction. He then visited the premier of Cayman, who shrugged his shoulders, and said a charity would probably take care of her....
That is the life of ordinary Caymanians under the British....
Haiti's death toll rises
"Hurricane Matthew has left at least 23 people dead in Haiti, a toll likely to climb as authorities re-establish contact with the hardest-hit areas where the damage is "catastrophic," officials said. The Caribbean's worst storm in nearly a decade, Matthew slammed into Haiti, the Americas' poorest nation, with heavy rains and devastating winds triggering severe flooding and mud slides."
In reply to mikesiva
When Ivan hit Cayman Is. it was devastating. 2 months after the hurricane I went there in relation to a bank which had lost one of its branches. Bank staff lived on the upper floor of the main office of the bank for a month.
The surge had covered 4 feet of most of Grand Cayman's west coast which is the main hotel area. Many of the new commercial buildings were made of concrete board so the water left a coating of mold which made them unsafe for occupation.
It was a difficult recovery, and that was in the days when Cayman had a flourishing economy.
In reply to Headley
This is an unbelievable disaster and it will get worsse
In reply to Chrissy
U see that the hurricane is projected to loop and hit lower Florida now! Can you believe this storm!! Yet people here cussing the MET office?
40 feet storm surge forecasted for Florida coast
Over 200 dead in Haiti -damn!
In reply to Chrissy
Real scary.I just managed to escape Florida and I'm Wisconsin for work till the end of the week. So I escaped the wrath, but my thoughts are with Central Florida. Scheduled to go back Sunday if things return to normalcy.
In reply to gvenkat
Good to hear.
In reply to Chrissy
Wherever it makes landfall will be a disaster. Thanks for checking in chrissy.. you are thr weather champion... Bahamas taking a direct hit.. damn
In reply to Chrissy
I was busy today but I am not seeing a lot of news out of the Bahamas. As far as I recall New Providence does not have daily papers which may partly explain the lack of news. Or is it that the real sources of news are focused on Florida?
In reply to Headley
'Hurricane Matthews blast through The Bahamas brought harrowing reports of roofs blown off, windows shattering and water rising perilously, including a social media post from one desperate resident who said, Im on a chest of drawers. Phone battery low.'
More here
Of course, it was much worse in Haiti
"Hundreds of people have died in Hurricane Matthew, the largest storm to hit the Caribbean - and soon the United States - for a decade. As one of the poorest countries in the world is still dealing with the effects of an earthquake last year and a cholera outbreak, now close to 300 people have been killed by collapsing infrastructure and mudslides amid a category four storm which ravaged the Caribbean this week. Conflicting reports say the latest death toll is between 264 and 283 people in Haiti - both numbers are up dramatically from the half dozen or so initially reported."
In reply to mikesiva
Thanks Mike. I expect we will hear more from the other islands over the coming days.
Haiti
In reply to Headley
"There were no deaths reported in the Bahamas on Thursday, but terrified locals still said it was like nothing they had ever seen."
Read more:
Lots of houses destroyed in Cuba, but no reported deaths
In reply to Cheeks
Every estimate of the death toll is more frightening.
Haiti and the Bahamas devastated
In reply to Runs
There is something really freaky about how this STORM has been behaving....
and its still not done.
Number of dead in Haiti passes 800
In reply to Chrissy
"Hundreds of people have been killed in the wake of the strongest storm to hit the Caribbean and the United States in more than a decade. In Haiti, the death toll due to Hurricane Matthew rose to 842, according to Reuters, with tens of thousands of people now homeless and a swathe of crops and livestock destroyed. Many more people are missing or unaccounted for."
More here
"At least ten people have died as Hurricane Matthew continued to work its way up the Atlantic coast of the United States. The storm has diminished since pulverising Haiti, causing almost 900 deaths, yet still continues to wreak havoc in the US causing serious flooding and widespread power outages in Georgia and Florida."
More here
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