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Allyuh don't jokeTake dis one seriously allyuh.

This one looks like it could hit Barbados.

In reply to Hants

No way - that looks more like Dominica and the French islands

In reply to Hants

Barbados is out of the equation in terms of Irma. You can't predict mother nature, but I would say from Guadeloupe in the South to Bermuda, that area should pay close attention

Path and historical

In reply to pelon

Wunderground must have taken that before the wobble.

I do not think Barbados is out of the woods.

In reply to pelon

Few storms that form so far out go south and then West. This looks like Caribbean sea again and DR/Haiti, JA and Cuba better pay attention.

If it goes West all the way which I doubt, it could end up in the GOM again.

In reply to Chrissy

You know... I trust you on these storm systems before I trust even Miami

I come here from June first for your reports...where can I donate to keep the program going?

In reply to Chrissy

concur.

In reply to pelon

Whats funny is that I never heard Chrissy say she studied Meteorology or teaches it...

Your Passion does expose you nuh?

She should be doing weather for TVJ

In reply to powen001

experience and the pursuit of knowledge can't be extracted from a person. She is boss at weather! check pm

In reply to pelon

Thanks man..you pleasantly surprised me

In reply to powen001

Thanks bro - the experts (and I am not one) now suggest this may be a fish storm - Bermuda and Nova Scotia should watch - might help us draw the series at the end of next week in Pommie land

In reply to powen001

TVJ is more interested in Entertainment than weather. It's rushed and inadequate.

In reply to powen001

Free forever

In reply to Chrissy

keep em coming

In reply to Chrissy

The real joke in BIM is that social media is on fire about this...and as you just said CBC confirmed that it may very well not be a threat but we will observe..in the meantime...social media is creating hysteria without checking sources...

oh well

In reply to powen001

Look dem watching Texas and 'fraid out a dem wits. Fire and water will mad nuff peeps.

You prepare for the worst and watch di proceedings.
I'm surprised my sistren in Bim een call me yet.

Tell them to watch the one just coming off Africa. It's peak season - pay attention, monitor and get on with life.

In reply to Chrissy

Bang on Chrissy..laawdy.that is bang on discernment...

watching TEXAS floods all day and Jumpy Jumpy

In reply to powen001

Some have a vicarious desire to experience a big one. I won't wish a serious hurricane on anyone in this region - we do not have the resources to handle it and there will never be a complete recovery.

Hmmmmmmm Irma will be a major hurricane in the Leewqrd Islands. May or may not be a fish storm if it turns.
Dominica, St Lucia, Martinique and Guadelope get ready

Take care people.

In reply to Chrissy

Just saw the updated trajectory on Wunderground (god bless that site). If it gets too far west before it curves, worries for Dom Rep/Haiti and Puerto Rico. i think it might miss Ja, Cuba and the states though...

In reply to Chrissy
I once had a manager named Irma....


















The less said about her the better.

//

In reply to pelon

I think the chances that this does not make landfall somewhere is slim.

It is looking quite worrying right now really.

This is one of those systems that no one in the Caribbean should take their eyes off of for the next few days.

My post 2 days ago remains the same in terms of threat area:

The high pressure system that is guiding Irma is likely to keep it in that zone...

Good peeps take note that the current pressure is 997 MB which is indicative of an already concentrated major storm... it wont be long before it is a hurricane

Use this image to get a sense of the path based on the high pressure ridge (above) Irma that will serve as a guidance system: LINK


This image also shows the reason for the forecast "dip" followed by the traditional west - north west path: LINK

Learning to interpret these high and low pressure bands, allows you to become almost as accurate as Chrissy...


STAY SAFE by being informed.

Also, please note that Irma is at LEAST 5 days away from any land form, so be patient and keep an eye on it.

Latest Tracks: LINK

For EXTRA credit for those would be weather buffs, learn to monitor weather buoys in the Atlantic, they are EXCELLENT indicators in advance of the weatherman: LINK

In reply to pelon

irma has an eye

Di good news for di Yard - dem female storms hate us

The truth about Irma

In reply to Chrissy

Also, note your second image concurs with my assessment.

In reply to pelon

True but history suggests she will turn WNW and miss the islands - we can hope history is on our side.

In reply to pelon

I had to learn to inform my department and faculty.

In reply to pelon & Chrissy

Im nominating you and Chrissy for the Penthouse!

FYI: Irma is now a hurricane.

In reply to pelon

Yep Cat2 Irma one day early

pelon Quickie on Storms: Ok, now at lunch I can expand on some info.

Path trends:
In general, hurricanes are steered by global winds. In the Atlantic it is the trade winds that does the bulk of the work of 'steering' storms

All (Atlantic) Storms tend to follow the path of least resistance in a west, north-west trajectory. Somewhat like water (river) or electricity. Unlike a river though (which has defined river banks), this resistance for storms (eg:subtropical ridge) is in constant flux! (This creates a complex problem for forecasters.)

The sub tropical ridge, is a strong ever present high pressure ridge, and it is the initial "road map maker" for all atlantic storm paths... Later in the path of any storm, other smaller high pressure systems or "ridges" and the flow of air around them are the most significant indicators of where the storm will go in the sort-term to mid-term.

In addition to the steering flow by the environmental trade winds, a hurricane tends to drift northwestward (in the Northern Hemisphere) due to a process called beta drift, which arises because the strength of the Coriolis force increases with latitude for a given wind speed.

Strengthening and Weakening: (keeping it simple edition)
A storm gets energy IN AND FROM WARM WATERS (which I can discuss in detail separately if needed). Inversely, it is weakened by sheer, dry air, land mass, and /or cold waters.

So good peps: As you observe IMAGES from various web sources, you are now in a better position to "interpret" the data.

1. Look for where the HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES are (indicated by a large capital 'H'. LINK
2. Look for other ridges that will influence the future path.
3. Grab an image that has WIND PATHS. LINK follow the arrows!!!! Thats what the storm does
4. Get animated! seeing the history of say the last 12 hr, is a great guide for the next 3... LINK

At the end of the day, I am only hoping to pass on the tools I use. I am NOT a meteorologist and never will be, yet (rum soaked) sailing in the region , flying/flight school and 20 years of storm tracking leaves a man with 'laymans experience', that which I enjoy sharing..... PLEASE USE official weather services for your assessments.

ah gorn

It was the Trade Winds that brought
Columbus to the " NEW WORLD " . BTW
Columbus had an African Navigator .

His name was Pedro Alonso Nino , Interestingly , In some places in Mexico there are Statutes with Negroid
Features .

In reply to POINT

That clueless 'teef' thought he was going to India.

In reply to pelon

I hear you , I am always upset & amused by the fact that Columbus got
all the Glory , but his navigator got very little .

The fact is that Sir Edmund Hillary could not have successfully , become
the first man to climb to the top of Mount Everest , had it not been his Guide , Tensing .

Those who write History get ALL the
Glory . The Real Heroes , get very little .

In reply to POINT

Way of the world, sadly

Update: Category 3 Hurricane.

Very well organized, yet compact at 15 miles wide (hurricane force) and 80 at tropical force winds.

I discussed the influence on the ridges here

In reply to pelon

De Shadow's take on Colombus

In reply to Maispwi

Check out dis one

By di way the projections for Irma moving away from us. Gwey Irma gwey!

In reply to dale_staple

Well it's curving WNW on most of the models

CDEMA Statement

great explanation of di state of Irma

Irma will hit Washington DC

Too much hot air in de white house.