Will It Be Deja Vu?

The past week has been a tumultuous one for West Indies cricket, evidenced by the occurrence of several unsavory incidents, much has been said on those elsewhere so my focus here will be on the impending business of playing cricket.

In two days, the first Test begins at Bourda in Guyana. I will attempt to give an objective analysis of how I view the upcoming series. Several persons have been giving varied opinions on how they see this very important series for the West Indies unfolding. But while some have given serious consideration to the task ahead several others are based on pure emotions without carefully looking at current realities.

For me, this series is more important to the West Indies than it is to Australia simply because of the fact that several West Indians and followers of West Indies cricket seem to think that this team is turning the proverbial corner. This series and those that follow against Sri Lanka at home, South Africa away and England at home should provide definitive pointers with regards to the state of West Indies cricket and where it is going.

History is usually a good indicator in making forecasts and predictions, a concept with which I have no problem. Using this as a guideline some individuals quickly point to the fact that on the last trip to the Caribbean the Australians were expected to soundly beat the Brian Lara led West Indies yet the Test series ended up drawn, predicated by some truly outstanding performances by Lara himself and worthwhile support from the other batsmen and the bowlers. Is it justified to expect such recurrences this time around? While it is not far fetched or totally impossible I do not think it will happen. Let us look at my reasoning for such a conclusion.

Fact # 1
While it cannot be denied that Brian Lara was the difference in 1999, the support role at the time was far more reliable than what the present team presents. In Curtly Ambrose and Courtney Walsh the West Indies had two world-class and match-winning bowlers and despite the fact that Nehemiah Perry is no Muralitheran he proved to be a major worry for the Aussies and had some useful wicket-taking matches.

The batting while not as talented as today had gutsy performers then in the Jimmy Adams, Sherwin Campbell, and Ridley Jacobs, of that series, who despite their limitations were far more reliable than the current batsman on any given day and could be depended on, to lock one end while Lara applied a canning to McGrath, Gillespie, Warne and company.

Fact # 2
The Australian team of 1999 while being very good was in no way as proficient and ruthless as the current team. Of course several of the same players are still playing but in 1999 they were still wet behind the years, lacking the experience and the never say die approach that they are now displaying on cricket fields all over the world.

Fact # 3
The WI is not a settled side. The team still lacks a settled opening pair of batsmen, still relies too much on Brian Lara, does have not have a settled bowling rotation, the level of fielding is less than satisfactory and there's an aging wicketkeeper who is past his best. At the same time Australia is transitioning. To be utterly realistic now would be the ideal time to beat the Aussies who are halfway through transitioning both their test and OD teams, But the WI has missed the boat by persisting for too long with a "medium term" captain whilst not grooming a replacement, making no effort to prepare a new wicketkeeper and cannot fathom that some of the bowlers that are constantly being selected will never be able to win matches.

It is not impossible for the current West Indies team to make a fight of the upcoming series as the West Indies have historically always done well at home. However for them to win or even draw this series they will have to lift their game way above the level they are currently playing. The current team lacks the requisite discipline, consistency and temperament to successfully conquer the current Australian team.

It cannot be denied that in Brian Lara the West Indies have one batsmen of undoubted class and one for the big occasions. However the supporting roles pales in comparison to the team that did so well on the last Australian tour.

Except for Chanderpaul's dourness and fighting qualities and Ramnaresh Sarwan, the only batsman of the young brigade that appears to be developing, not much else is there. It will require a complete reversal of attitude, commitment to the cause, consistency (not ever a watch-word for this team) and intestinal fortitude for these West Indian batsmen to score consistently against the Australian bowlers. Despite some cameos in the recent past none of Christopher Gayle (whom I think will be recalled once the present controversy is past), Wavell Hinds and Marlon Samuels has done enough to suggest that they will succeed at the longer version of the game.

Gayle's sluggish footwork renders him even more vulnerable than most left-handers to the ball slanted across him. It was exploited by the South Africans in the West Indies in 2000/01 when he was caught between 'keeper and gully seven times in 10 innings. This failing was again cruelly exposed 2001 in Sri Lanka against Chaminda Vaas' wily left-arm swing. Feet cemented to the crease, Gayle fell to him five times in six innings, the last three for ducks. I cannot see him succeeding against McGrath, Gillespie, Lee and company.

Hinds can be a destructive batsman on any given day but his penchant to gift his wicket to harmless deliveries is a worrying tendency, which he does not, it appears, have the requisite discipline to curb.

The consistency of Samuels at this level leaves a lot to be desired. There has been a lot of hype about his performances in India but, I have not seen enough from him to convince me that he is ready for all comers, he blows cold more often than hot, as his averages clearly show. True, he did well the first time he played against the Australians down under, but then he was an unknown. He is no longer unknown and I am sure the Australians bowlers will be asking him some serious questions. In addition he appears to lack mental toughness something I am sure the sledging Aussies will take advantage of.

The only other serious contenders are Devon Smith and Darren Ganga, who are still largely untried entities and while they may play at some time during the series I fear it may be asking too much to expect them deliver the quality performances that fans are so desperately screaming for.

This leads me to the real headache of the West Indies team over the last few years and its Achilles' Heel, the bowling. The current team does not have one match-winning bowler. For us to beat this Australian team they will have to be bowled out twice in every match. It is not impossible but it is highly inconceivable that our current bowlers will be able to achieve this.

Mervin Dillon the current number one bowler on the West Indies team is not a match winner and does not have the pace, the consistency or killer instinct to be one. Of the others Pedro Collins has been largely inconsistent and lacks the requisite skills to succeed as an international bowler. Vasbert Drakes has been around for some time, and is quite experienced but for me he is on the wrong side of a pace bowler?s age. To be frank I do not expect his type of bowling to be a factor on these docile Caribbean wickets.

Jermaine Lawson, Tino Best, Jerome Taylor, Jason Bennett and Andrew Richardson appear to be good prospects and may possess the type of firepower for which West Indian pace bowling is renowned. However to expect these fledging bowlers (work in-progress as they are referred to), or whomever else the selectors decide to call up, to contain the Australians will be asking one heck of a lot, and they will be hard pressed to impress against Hayden, Langer, Ponting, Martyn, Gilchrist, Lehman and Waugh.

The West Indies best bet to contain the Aussie batsmen would be an off spinner of some I have been following the West Indies first class season to see if anyone would put up their hand and despite the performances of Mohamed and Breese in particular I am still not confident that they have the quality to trouble the aggressive Aussie batsmen. In the final analysis it will take more than a Herculean effort for the current crop of bowlers to make any meaningful effort on the Australians.

To compound the entire scenario is the fact that when it comes to on the field leadership and tactical acumen Steve Waugh is ahead of reinstated West Indies Captain Brian Lara. Thus with superior ammunition at his disposal and displaying greater ability to marshal his troops on the field it is difficult to see the Australians being beaten by the West Indies.

Mentally - Australia's imposing performance in Tests, and their similar record of victories in One-Day Internationals, is built on self-confidence and team unity as much as other factors such as balance, planning and fitness. The danger of complacency is the one factor that may aid the West Indies.

The West Indies have shown great character in, recovering from big losses in the first two tests in India to drawing the last test and winning the one dayers. Results that led to mass euphoria among passionate fans in the Caribbean.

The results in the World Cup have undone much of this and many in the Caribbean have not viewed the performances there positively. It will be interesting to see how well the players recover from their disappointing performances in South Africa. In addition all the off the field distractions in the past three weeks will almost certainly affect the psyche of the players and will require some serious psychoanalysis to get them fully focused on the task ahead.

What may be most critical are the quality of pitches in the Caribbean and the Guyanese weather. The wicket in Trinidad generally favors the team with the better bowlers. Barbados has what appears to be the only true cricket wicket in the Caribbean. The Antigua Recreation Ground is batting friendly and a bowler's heartache. Bourda in Guyana also is a batting wicket but the bowler who puts his back into it will get results.

I expect the West Indies do well in this series and play positive cricket, but in all honesty the current team is still in a developmental stage and to win this series will require a performance beyond our wildest expectations. After considering all the above factors and assuming that the Guyana test is played to completion, reality tells me that it is likely to be a 3-0 series for the Australians.