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Is Putins on the brink?
sgtdjones
2022-08-19 14:02:35
Is Putins on the brink?
In less than six months, Russian President Vladimir Putins war of choice has had catastrophic consequences for Russia itself. It has resulted in at least 60,000 Russian casualties, more than the total number of fatalities suffered during the 10-year Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. It has led to a long-term Russian loss of political influence and energy leverage in the West. It has helped resuscitate the NATO alliance, which just a few years ago seemed to be on its last legs. And it has inflicted severe, long-term damage on the Russian economy, effectively erasing all of the gains made since the Soviet Unions collapse.
And what has Russia gotten for this? Only a few more slivers of land in Ukraine land that the Kremlin may not be able to hold for very long.Russias elites already know this. As the body bags, wounded and discharged soldiers return to Russia, the Russian people are beginning to comprehend it as well. All of which increases Putins domestic political vulnerability and puts him under growing pressure to find some way to declare victory.Overall, however, Russias revamped offensive can be classified as a strategic failure, as more and more Russians die to temporarily hold non-strategic territory.The troops used for cannon fodder in the Kremlins campaign have been disproportionally not ethnically Russian something that has caused a souring of troop morale and stoked tensions between ethnically Russian troops and those from places like Buryatia (traditionally Buddhist) and Dagestan (mostly Muslim). Some soldiers are now refusing to fight, and discontent among their families presents a growing problem for Russias government.
But what is perhaps Putins most dangerous bad bet is now unfolding. With the destruction of the bridges necessary to resupply and/or reinforce them, the estimated 20,000 Russian troops on the west bank of the Dnipro River are trapped, effectively surrounded by Ukrainian forces without the capability to break out or to fight for any extended period of time. Putin did not reposition these troops when he had the chance to do so, effectively leaving them stranded. As a result, some senior commanders have deserted across the river, damaging Russian troop morale in Kherson and elsewhere.Although removing Russias president from power wont be easy, eventually the balance will inexorably shift from the dwindling number of stalwarts who still support his war aims to those who want to cut their losses.
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Halliwell
2022-08-19 14:04:04
Putins what?
sgtdjones
2022-08-19 14:07:13
Halliwell
2022-08-19 14:34:58
In reply to sgtdjones
You should not be so careless
You lost your noun
Was it stolen or did you misplace it
sgtdjones
2022-08-19 14:37:31
In reply to Halliwell
Nah , nah I didn't lose my noun , I didn't use it , so it becomes a mystery?
Ask Sodden?
FanAttick
2022-08-19 14:47:49
In reply to sgtdjones
No wonder Comrades Terminatorov and Commentatorev have been eerily quiet
pooranian
2022-08-19 15:00:09
Seems like he went in very feebly..should have blitzkrieged before western weapons reached..
black
2022-08-19 15:00:44
In reply to FanAttick
Where is Chemical Ali...err... Terminator?
FanAttick
2022-08-19 15:15:58
In reply to black
Where is Chemical Ali...err... Terminator?
Maybe Putin has banished him to Siberia
black
2022-08-19 15:29:44
sgtdjones
2022-08-19 15:56:05
In reply to FanAttick
The war falls into a stalemate. Many analysts, including Haines, consider this scenario the most likely. In it, Russia would dominate the east but would not be able to go much farther.
Ukraine starts to win. Ukraine would halt Russias advance in the east and also succeed in launching counterattacks, potentially reclaiming some territory in the south, where Russia has also taken over some cities.
Looking back at this list now, we are struck that the recent events seem to fall somewhere between the second and third scenarios.
In the early summer, Russia seemed to be making progress toward taking over all of eastern Ukraines Donbas region, which includes two provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk. But that progress appears to have slowed. Russia controls only Luhansk, not all of Donetsk.
Russia has made little to no inroads in the Donetsk province, and U.S. officials dont think theyll take it this year, said our colleague Eric Schmitt, a senior correspondent covering security issues. Colin Kahl, a top Pentagon official, has pointed out that Russias minuscule progress in the east has come at a high cost about 20,000 troop deaths and another 50,000 or so injuries. Michael Schwirtz, a Times correspondent who has been covering the war in Ukraine, calls these numbers astonishing.
Putin was hoping to be in a better position by now. After he was defeated in his initial attempt to oust Ukraines government, his fallback goal became taking over eastern Ukraine. That now seems unlikely to happen this year. Russia is not even accomplishing its scaled-down goal, Helene added.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/19/briefing/russia-ukraine-war-donbas.html
FanAttick
2022-08-19 15:59:10
In reply to sgtdjones
Massive Miscalculation by Putin
He had gotten a false sense of security when he had his stooge Trump working to destroy NATO
with Trump losing he panicked and jumped into a catastrophic invasion that has had the effect of precipitating the very thing he feared
the expansion of NATO at his doorstep
Halliwell
2022-08-19 16:12:46
In reply to sgtdjones
Look
Youll have to live with it
When the right people post longer articles, they stay open
You is wrong people
Live with it
sgtdjones
2022-08-19 17:37:01
In reply to Halliwell
Notice the dimwit (moderator) that posted a link...
You cannot read the article if you do not have a subscription...
sgtdjones
2022-08-19 17:41:17
In reply to FanAttick
How many HIMARS have the US sent to Ukraine?
Included in the latest presidential drawdown authority package are four additional HIMARS systems, which will give Ukraine a total of 16; four command post vehicles; additional anti-armor weapons, spare parts, and other gear; and 36,000 rounds of 105 mm ammunition.
The above makes a big difference for Ukraine towards Russia.
seaegg99
2022-08-19 18:21:24
In reply to sgtdjones
Now the Ukrainians are fully trained with the HIMARS all hell is breaking loose. They don't have to shoot into Russia but can now reach up to 50 miles behind Russian lines and cut them off from supplies.
XDFIX
2022-08-19 18:43:13
Russia will resort to nuclear or chemical warfare if push comes to shove, yuh read it here first! Putin is prepared to go down a la Hitler!
eXodus
2022-08-19 21:07:28
cricketmad
2022-08-19 21:12:44
In reply to XDFIX
Putin is not as crazy as you think.
sgtdjones
2022-08-19 21:45:33
In reply to eXodus
Thanks ..don't know how you did it but thanks...
KTom
2022-08-20 14:28:45
In reply to Halliwell
His TV's on the blink.
XDFIX
2022-08-20 17:18:02
In reply to cricketmad
Never trust a man who is power-centric!
FanAttick
2022-08-23 01:43:34
FanAttick
2022-08-23 02:01:04
sgtdjones
2022-08-23 02:05:40
Filatyev, 33, told CNN "corruption" and repression are rife in his home country and said his unit -- which was based in Crimea and sent to Ukraine entering Kherson early in the conflict -- was ill-equipped and given little explanation for Russia's invasion.According to Filatyev, the soldiers and their commanders did not know what they were expected to do in Ukraine. He added that they soon became disillusioned with the government's reasoning for its invasion after arriving in Kherson and facing resistance from locals who did not want to be "liberated."The paratrooper served in Russia's 56th air assault regiment and was also involved in efforts to capture the city of Mykolaiv. He was evacuated from the front lines because of an injury.
He told CNN the Russian army lacked basic equipment, as well as drones and other types of unmanned aircraft during his stint on the front line.
"Our barracks are about 100 years old and are not able to host all of our servicemen ... all of our weapons are from the times of Afghanistan," he said.
"Several days after we encircled Kherson many of us did not have any food, water or sleeping sacks on them," he said. "Because it was very cold at night, we couldn't even sleep. We would find some rubbish, some rags, just to wrap ourselves to keep warm."
'All of it is a lie': Russian paratrooper condemns his country's war in Ukraine