More than 40 years after Jamaica’s last oil well was drilled, its offshore petroleum question is back under scrutiny as new seabed sampling seeks to confirm whether decades of geological evidence point to an active offshore system.

FOR decades, Jamaica’s offshore oil story has existed more as geological footnote than commercial narrative — a scattering of old wells, surface seeps and unanswered questions. Now, a new phase of exploration is attempting to turn that fragmented evidence into a clearer investment case, not by drilling, but by reducing uncertainty.

At the centre of that effort is United Oil & Gas, which holds a 100 per cent interest in the 22,400-square-kilometre Walton Morant offshore licence south of the island. The company has begun a new round of offshore survey activity and is preparing to acquire shallow seabed core samples to directly test for hydrocarbons — a relatively low-cost step that could materially alter how Jamaica’s offshore potential is assessed by investors and industry partners.

The geological evidence underpinning that work was outlined by United’s technical team during a recent in-house technical discussion released as offshore survey operations commenced in the Walton Morant area.

More compelling still are surface oil seeps. In at least three locations across the island — east, west and central Jamaica — oil has been observed at surface and tested. Independent analysis has confirmed a thermogenic origin, meaning the hydrocarbons were generated at depth under heat and pressure.

“These are live oil seeps,” said Paul Ryan, United’s business technical manager. “They’ve been tested and found to be of thermogenic origin.”

An offshore seep has also been documented. During operations by former licence holder Tullow Oil, fishermen directed survey crews to an area known as Blower Rock, where an oil slick was visible at the sea surface. Samples taken from the slick were later analysed.

“The signature is suggestive of a thermogenic origin,” Ryan said, adding that it could not be confused with diesel or vessel-related contamination.

What distinguishes the current phase of work is the integration of historical evidence with modern data sets. Since 2014 an estimated US$40 million has been invested across the Walton Morant area by successive operators, including the acquisition of modern 2D and 3D seismic data, satellite seep analysis, and onshore fieldwork.

In 2020, United conducted a satellite seep study using up to two decades of imagery, identifying repeated surface slick anomalies appearing in the same offshore locations over time. These anomalies overlap with features visible in seismic data beneath the seabed — vertical “fluid escape” structures and shallow amplitude anomalies that suggest hydrocarbons may be migrating upward.

“Where those features are found are quite close to where the satellite anomalies are seen at the water surface,” Ryan said. “Taken together, they point back toward a specific source location.”

The company argues that this convergence — historical well data, verified seeps, satellite imagery and seismic interpretation — provides consistent evidence for an active petroleum system offshore, mirroring what is already proven onshore.

Still, evidence is not proof — and that distinction matters, particularly in a frontier basin.

The planned piston coring programme is designed to directly test seabed sediments for thermogenic hydrocarbons, effectively “ground-truthing” the circumstantial case. The survey is expected to collect 40 to 60 shallow cores, penetrating only soft sediments and leaving no lasting environmental footprint.

Independent geoscience consultancy Iapetus Geoscience has assessed the impact such results could have on exploration risk. In a September 2025 review the firm concluded that a successful coring campaign would directly de-risk two critical elements of the petroleum system: source rock presence and hydrocarbon migration.

As a result, the geological chance of success for United’s lead Calibri prospect could rise from about 19 per cent to roughly 32 per cent — a meaningful shift in exploration terms, though still far from a guarantee.

“That uplift doesn’t eliminate risk,” the report noted, “but it materially improves the probability profile for a frontier basin prospect.”

Other risk elements — including trap, reservoir and seal — are already supported to varying degrees by seismic data, according to the review, though uncertainty remains inherent.

Source: Jamaicaobserver.com

@Slipfeeler

Jamaica’s Offshore Oil Talk Needs Less Romance and More Reality

Oil has been seeping from the ocean floor for centuries. That fact, by itself, isn’t a revelation, and it certainly isn’t a development plan. Natural seepages are clues, not conclusions. They can hint at petroleum systems, yes, but history shows that many seep zones never translate into commercially recoverable fields. If they did, we’d have turned half the world’s coastlines into producing provinces long ago.

That’s why the renewed excitement around offshore Jamaica needs a cooler head and a harder look. It has been decades since serious offshore wells were drilled here. No one is arguing that Jamaica cannot have oil. The issue is whether it has oil in the quantities, quality, and geologic conditions that make it economically viable​, and whether today’s market and risk profile justify the gamble.

And this is where much of the public discussion, including the recent Jamaica Observer framing, feels premature. It talks about the most important variables: price and profitability. Offshore exploration is not charity work; it’s capital-intensive, high-risk investment. Companies don’t spend hundreds of millions on seismic and deepwater wells because they’re curious. They do it because the numbers​, and the geology​, tell them the odds are worth it.

Compare Jamaica’s uncertainty with what is unfolding in the deep waters off Trinidad and Tobago.

Exxon didn’t simply wake up and decide to “try T&T.” It moved with purpose after the world-class Guyana discoveries proved a working petroleum system in the region. More importantly, the same oil-bearing sand formation is understood to extend into T&T’s territory. That continuity reduces uncertainty​, the single biggest cost in exploration. With that kind of geological confidence, Exxon could justify sole-sourcing a bid, mobilizing seismic ships, and publicly announcing follow-up drilling. That is what a data-driven frontier looks like when the evidence is compelling.

Jamaica, by contrast, is still sitting too heavily in the realm of “maybe.”

And “maybe” is expensive.

Even in proven basins, offshore oil pushes engineering and operations to the edge. Equipment has to endure saltwater corrosion, punishing pressure and temperature, complex subsea logistics, and the constant challenge of working far from shore. Safety systems aren’t optional add-ons; they’re the spine of the entire operation, blowout preventers, remote monitoring, redundant controls, emergency response capacity, because when offshore systems fail, they fail spectacularly.

The Deepwater Horizon disaster in 2010 remains the clearest warning: one event can wipe out lives, companies, coastlines, and public trust, and trigger years of litigation and regulation.

Now layer in geography. Jamaica sits directly in the Atlantic hurricane corridor. That’s not a small detail to be brushed aside with optimistic language. Seasonal storm risk affects everything: platform design, operating windows, insurance costs, response planning, downtime, and ultimately economic feasibility. Trinidad, in contrast, lies outside the main hurricane belt. Nature alone gives T&T an operational advantage Jamaica does not have.

Then there’s the environmental reality​, again, not as a talking point, but as a set of measurable costs and consequences. Routine offshore activity can disrupt marine ecosystems through seismic noise, seabed disturbance, produced-water discharge, and increased vessel traffic. The catastrophic risk​, an oil spill​, carries direct threats to fisheries, reefs, wetlands, and the tourism economy that Jamaica depends on. And even without a spill, expanding offshore production extends the life of fossil fuels, with the climate implications that come with burning that supply. Drilling, pumping, processing, and transport all have carbon footprints; methane leaks, when they occur, add an even more potent warming effect.

None of this means “don’t explore.” It means don’t oversell.

Because offshore oil doesn’t just “find a resource.” It triggers a chain reaction of investment demands, regulatory burdens, environmental exposure, and political complexity. In maritime spaces governed by exclusive economic zones and continental shelf claims, discoveries can heighten boundary sensitivities and security concerns. They can also invite new alliances, new disputes, and new pressures to protect infrastructure at sea. Sometimes shared basins foster cooperation; sometimes they sharpen competition. Either way, the stakes rise quickly.

So if Jamaica wants a serious offshore conversation, it has to start where serious investors start: with geology, economics, and risk​, spelled out plainly.

What basin model are we relying on? What comparable discoveries exist nearby that reduce uncertainty? What would break-even costs look like in deep water? How does hurricane exposure alter project economics? What regulatory capacity and spill response capability do we actually have? And in a world that is​, slowly but steadily​, moving toward lower-carbon energy, what kind of development truly makes sense, and at what cost?

Until those questions are front and center, the discussion remains too speculative​, and the public is being asked to confuse possibility with probability.

Jamaica deserves better than that. It deserves an energy debate grounded in numbers, not vibes.

Sarge

CC.. DASHAN HENDRICKS  Observer Business Editor.

@Slipfeeler

Great research and response, Jamaica is still in the exploratory and speculative phase, the article attempts to outline Jamaica’s history of oil exploration and less on comparative development with Trinidad and Tobago or Guyana. However, you asked some relevant questions and made some very valid arguments.

@Slipfeeler

I sent a copy to DASHAN HENDRICKS , lets see if he responds.