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Duckworth Lewis is fundamentally flawed

 
FanAttick 2015-03-24 07:04:17 

There is no way that the Saffies should have lost 7 overs at the business end with wickets in hand and only 17 runs added to the target. The revised target should have been at least 320.

Duckworth Lewis is not valid in the modern game

 
Maispwi 2015-03-24 07:12:24 

In reply to FanAttick

The current DLS tables were produced before the fielding restrictions came into play and will need more games before they can be adjusted to take that issue into account.

 
FanAttick 2015-03-24 07:16:41 

In reply to Maispwi

Not just fielding restrictions but also use of two (harder) balls and shortened boundary dimensions...

 
FuzzyWuzzy 2015-03-24 07:42:54 

In reply to FanAttick

So without DL how would you determine a target?

 
hubert 2015-03-24 07:51:22 

In reply to FuzzyWuzzy
Determine it off the 20 overs when the match becomes official. Both teams know that they have to give their very best in those 1st 20 overs.
Do away with DL.
If the game is curtailed without two teams getting their 1st 20, then replay or go with the Group stage tie breaker.
I like to keep things simple. No rocket science can determine an outcome

The KISS principle
lol

 
Maispwi 2015-03-24 07:53:46 

In reply to FanAttick

The boundaries have been made shorter for some time now, they just din make it widely known. In fact they have been closing in on them since 2007.

 
doosra 2015-03-24 08:07:59 

it's the best of all the "flawed" systems

big men study it for years and cyah better it, yet

 
Pacy 2015-03-24 08:19:15 

In reply to doosra

Problem is Studying it for years... ICC brings changes very quickly that the scores one year is not the same as this year.

May be the Sample data should be based on the scores over the last 12 Months which could be more relevant to current scenario.

 
gvenkat 2015-03-24 08:55:03 

In reply to Pacy

The sample data is to cover the recent high scoring games. I did speak to the Person who is custodian of the rule.

It's the best of the flawed systems that are available right now

 
black 2015-03-24 09:14:05 

In reply to FanAttick

I have always said DL is flawed

I could list many ways in which it is flawed

 
Fivestar 2015-03-24 09:46:21 

In reply to FanAttick

I've long contended Duckworth Lewis is the stupidest thing in the history of cricket.

 
FanAttick 2015-03-24 11:08:20 

In reply to FuzzyWuzzy

So without DL how would you determine a target?

Whatever system is used must take into account the record of the specific batsmen at the wicket or pending to bat and the record of the individual bowlers pending to bowl...

If no record is available then use par run rate for that ground..this could be broken down by phase..

In other words AB De Villiers must be given a higher run rate allowance than Kraig Braffit...

 
gvenkat 2015-03-24 11:17:43 

In reply to FanAttick

Come up with a system lol lol lol

 
FanAttick 2015-03-24 11:24:46 

In reply to gvenkat

Ok. I'll get to work lol

 
Headley 2015-03-24 12:01:48 

In reply to Pacy

May be the Sample data should be based on the scores over the last 12 Months which could be more relevant to current scenario.


I am agreement with a recent period, maybe 24 months. 12 months may be a little short. A few outliers could significantly affect the average. If 12 months is used I would suggest taking out the lowest 10% and the highest 10% scores.

 
Maispwi 2015-03-24 15:54:00 

In reply to Headley

How long have the new rules been in place?

 
matchstick 2015-03-24 22:15:40 

In reply to FanAttick

Whatever system is used must take into account the record of the specific batsmen at the wicket or pending to bat and the record of the individual bowlers pending to bowl...


sounds full proof...

cuz every batsman performs according to their record against every bowler in every condition... rolleyes

what's being missed here is that weather is a fair part of cricketing strategy... SA won the toss and chose to bat knowing very well that there will be rain sometime later in the play...

most other teams knowing rain will chose to field first...

the DL system applies to both sides as much as the toss is a probability flip.

 
gvenkat 2015-03-24 22:16:44 

In reply to matchstick

And how is that even possible? These guys talk out of their asses most of the time.

 
matchstick 2015-03-24 22:19:29 

In reply to gvenkat

lol...

even if they use it... ppl will find a way to complain about that too...

the DL system is the best way of approximating a game... If you get into the math a bit having some background in statistics you will be rather impressed that a sport uses something of it...

 
gvenkat 2015-03-24 22:37:27 

In reply to matchstick

299 in 43 overs was still a stiff target. McCullum went ape shit in the first 5 overs and That brought the RR down drastically.

 
matchstick 2015-03-24 22:41:02 

In reply to gvenkat

par score all world cup seemed 300-330...

can't complain much about the 298 especially when the majority of runs are scored in the last 15 overs and NZ would be batting only 8 of those 15.

 
Acid 2015-03-25 00:23:16 

If they have a day reserved for the knockouts, why couldn't they just resume on Wednesday from where the match ended on Tuesday?

In a critical match you'd want both teams to get their maximum exposure of overs.

In this case it makes no sense having a reserve day if they are going to use DL on the 1st day

 
Dan_De_Lyan 2015-03-25 01:11:56 

In reply to FanAttick

The second team is always at an unfair advantage.

I say stop the match and give both teams a restart with the reduced overs

 
Pacy 2015-03-25 03:30:03 

In reply to matchstick

par score all world cup seemed 300-330...


Par score is right Matchstick but if you look at the matches SA played in this WC whenever they had this platform they ended up with a score close to 400.

SA was just accelerating and with all Main NZ bowlers (Bolt, Vettori) bowled out SA had a good chance to score at a dramatic pace like what they did against WI.

But nature cannot be fought with. Cant help the fate of SA who seem to have this bad omen in important matches.

 
gvenkat 2015-03-25 19:12:01 

In reply to Pacy

What if some one took a hatrick? big grin

Stop talking woulda coulda

 
Pacy 2015-03-25 23:31:33 

In reply to gvenkat

Duckworth Lewis is Woulda - Coulda.... I am talking about general situation and you are the one talking about rare occurances... How many times have teams taken Hatricks?