The Independent Voice of West Indies Cricket

The economic uncertainty facing T&T

sgtdjones 2/19/24, 4:33:00 PM
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debut: 2/16/17
34,949 runs

The economic uncertainty facing T&T

The augmentation of natural gas production at T&T is unattainable without significant exploration, which has yet to occur. Given the current state of affairs, the administration feels obliged to proceed.
The achievement of this conceptualization is reliant on perfect conditions, which are rarely encountered in real-world scenarios. In the absence of any novel findings, there has been an absence of expansion in production capacities Gas contracts typically implemented by T&T span a minimum of ten years. Several of these lengthy agreements were ultimately finalized between the years 2015 and 2020.
As a result of the decline in natural gas production, market prices decreased. In general, contractual agreements were renewed for abbreviated durations, typically between three and five years.

The Energy Chamber has determined that particular facilities operated in adherence to monthly contractual agreements. A number of facilities ceased operations. As a result of T&T encountering either a gas supply shortage or insufficient product pricing that failed to warrant further production, this event occurred. A selection of recently renegotiated durations and terms are considered sensitive and have been withheld.

In October 2023, Methanex Corporation, the leading producer and supplier of methanol globally, entered into a gas agreement with T&T for a duration of two years. Concurrently with this announcement, the organization declared that production at its smaller, dormant "Titan" methanol facility would be transferred to the Atlas methanol plant, where it would cease operations in September 2024.The facility has depleted its gas supply for twenty years, and the gas provided under the new contract is inadequate to sustain the unit's profitability and efficiency. Eventually, annual production would decrease. Methanex released its operating results for the fourth quarter of December 2023 on January 31, 2023. As a result of limited gas supply in 2023, the organization operated solely from the Atlas facility, which achieved an output of 1.085 million tons, or fifty-five percent of its overall Trinidad and Tobago production capacity.
The total capacity of Titan is 875 thousand. A minimum reduction of 210,000 tons in Titan's annual output is anticipated under ideal operating conditions.

Trinidad and Tobago's exports influence both its foreign exchange earnings and tax revenue.
This solitary facility serves as an illustration of the issue at hand, thereby underscoring the critical nature of augmenting natural gas production.
According to the energy minister's projections, the country's gas production will remain at its current level for the following two years, or until 2027, at which point "first gas" will be extracted from the Loran Manatee field.
If there is no substantial increase in the production of natural gas, the physical output of the petrochemical sector will decline by over 2 billion cubic feet per day. T&T requires over 4.4 billion cubic feet per day, its produces 2.2 billion cubic feet per day.

LNG production is also constrained by deficiencies in natural gas production. Therefore, any improvement in the operational effectiveness of either industry is dependent on the volatility of market prices. There is an effect on the availability of foreign exchange and the national budget. The augmentation of natural gas production at T&T is unattainable without significant exploration, which has yet to occur over the past eight years

This clarifies the continuous effort to secure the Dragon Gas agreement despite the challenges it presents. Uncertainty is the ultimate outcome.
Conquering the challenges associated with the Dragon undertaking is not a simple undertaking. When analyzing the risk profile of the Dragon Field,  risk and uncertainty are distinct concepts. Risk can therefore be quantified and reduced. Uncertainty is immeasurable in nature. Businesses are likely to engage in risky endeavors when suitable incentives are provided. Nevertheless, they tend to stay away from situations that are marked by uncertainty.

The potential for "uncontrollable" geopolitical events and ambiguity pose a challenge for the dragon. 
Is Venezuela a viable corporate ally? 
What geopolitical consequences result from the engagement and imposition of sanctions by the United States against Venezuela? 
In the absence of insurance, the probability of addressing these issues is negligible. 
Shell, as the primary stakeholder with a 70% ownership interest, lacks responsibility to the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (GORTT) regarding the aforementioned decision.
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Slipfeeler 2/19/24, 7:43:36 PM
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debut: 12/22/15
7,373 runs

“The augmentation of natural gas production at T&T is unattainable without significant exploration, which has yet to occur“

So, what’s the problem? That’s the same predicament as Jamaica.
sgtdjones 2/19/24, 8:24:05 PM
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debut: 2/16/17
34,949 runs

In reply to Slipfeeler

In the last 8 years nothing was done by this government via exploration.

They realized T&T needs 4.4 billion cubic feet per day to have maximum production.

Presently T&T can only supply 2.2 billion cubic feet per day. Over 10 plants at Pt Lisas closed down.

All The BS about Dragon field it can only supply 250 million cubic feet per day....its pittance.
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Jumpstart 2/19/24, 8:32:50 PM
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debut: 11/30/17
9,230 runs

In reply to Slipfeeler

no it isnt. trinidad has a world class LNG and petrochemical sector. we have one problem, ad its a big problem. We are quite low on natural gas. In fact production has been falling since 2014. I don't think that is news to anyone. Uncontrollable geopolitical events is always a factor. The beginning of the 60s in Latin America saw a wave of left wing movements, culminating in Salvador Allende's assentation as the world's first democratically elected socialist/communist leader. I don't think that affected anyone from taking the risk in trying to procure Chilean copper. We need gas, Venezuela has it and it would be foolish, idiotic and irresponsible to not even attempt to go where there are sources of natural gas. Putin invading Ukraine the first time didn't kill the Nord Stream project. In fact the Nord stream 2 project started after the first invasion of ukraine.

Also i don't think the risks that TT faces are dissimilar to the risks other countries face.In fact in many cases they're not even half as bad as the risks some countries are facing right now. Right now poland, Estonia, bulgaria and Sweden face the very real possibility of russian aggression. Somalia and Ethiopia have simmering tension over the use of Somaliland as a access path to red sea by Ethiopia.These are two countries that already fought a war in the 70s Argentina's soup kitchens are closing because they simply don't have the money and 57.4% of the population is now classified as poor. The world is in chaos. It would be foolhardy to believe that T&T, a leader in the energy industry for quite some time, wouldn't be affected by it
sgtdjones 2/19/24, 8:59:46 PM
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debut: 2/16/17
34,949 runs

In reply to Jumpstart

“The augmentation of natural gas production at T&T is unattainable without significant exploration, which has yet to occur“

So, what’s the problem? That’s the same predicament as Jamaica.


Look at what you wrote and the question he asked ? Trini's compensate for their embarrassment by bringing in other countries Why? Russia ?

Uncontrollable geopolitical events is always a factor.


How can such stop significant exploration in T&T waters? The government did nothing over the last 8 years . Russia is stopping exploration.?

You would get a failure should your teachers see such...I expected better from you ...I am disappointed.

QatarEnergy LNG, formerly Qatargas, is the world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) company. It produces and supplies the globe with 77 million metric tonnes of LNG annually from across its seven ventures..7 trains.
Qatar, the world's largest LNG exporter, held a groundbreaking ceremony on October 3 for the North Field expansion project, which will raise the country's LNG production capacity from 77mn tonnes/year to 126mn tonnes/year by 2026.
Qatar has over 300 years of natural gas.



T&T provides approx. 7 million tons per year, it has the capacity to produce 15 million tons per year.
Its ranked 25th in world wide production.
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Slipfeeler 2/20/24, 1:17:29 AM
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debut: 12/22/15
7,373 runs

In reply to sgtdjones

I guess Use of English class at UWI was not as useless as we originally thought when we were students. big grinbig grin
sgtdjones 2/20/24, 2:21:01 AM
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debut: 2/16/17
34,949 runs

In reply to Slipfeeler

Jumpy is studying to be a Civil Engineer...
In Engineering one must read , understand then write factual information or disaster follows. No deviation are allowed in calculations.

He is a young one , I am hoping will improve and be the best..cool
notinsular 2/20/24, 5:18:24 AM
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debut: 12/10/06
2,853 runs

Typical paid UNC troll. The TnT press comments are liitered with these paid racist unpatriotic hacks. They will do everything in their power to get their hands on the TnT treasury. Paint the country in the worst possible light at any opportunity. I don't know why they don't just migrate to mother India where their true loyalties lie.

They desperately want the dragon gas deal to fail so that their chance of regaining power will, in their twisted minds, be enhanced. They were the ones singing from the Guaido hymn book.
So according to this hack the current regime did nothing re exploration. I wonder what his alcohol soaked Queen and her minions did to expand LNG production in their last turn at bat. At least the current admin has focused on the game-changing opportunity they sneer at and hope will fail.


per Forbes:
The Dragon field contains 3.2 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas. To consider its production potential, as a general rule, for every 1 tcf you have to produce 100 million cubic feet (mcf) per day. This means that the field will provide about half of Trinidad’s domestic demand of 700 mcf.


it is expected that the field will be wholly operated by Shell and NGC—the latter as a minority partner.


The paid troll posits that this is all BS. He probably says this too is BS:
S&P report
FEATURE: Trinidad seals two deals that could revive gas production
HIGHLIGHTS
Three deepwater exploration blocks awarded to BP-Shell consortium

Agreement with Venezuela to use Trinidad's LNG infrastructure for Dragon gas deal would enable Trinidadian LNG exports from Venezuelan field


Trinidad's energy ministry awarded three deepwater blocks for hydrocarbon production off the country's east cost on Sept. 26 to a consortium comprising oil majors BP and Shell, BP said in a statement on the same date.


In November, American engineering company McDermott confirmed it had received a limited notice to proceed for an Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation (EPCI) contract from Shell T&T for the Manatee gas field development project, located off the east coast of T&T.


So Shell, BP and the TT government don't know what they are doing.

Unlike him, true TnT citizens will support whatever is in the interest of the country, no matter who is in power. Not this unpatriotic lot,who try to destabilize and discredit the country at every turn. According to these Cambridge Analytica devotees the majority of people here "eating grass" and suffering.
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Jumpstart 2/20/24, 11:59:25 AM
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debut: 11/30/17
9,230 runs

In reply to sgtdjones

exploration could not occur because gas contracts had not been negotiated. existing gas contracts. Everyone knows you do not wait for a gas contract to elapse before you start negotiations. The only arrangement was that when the former administration cutting the royalties the BP had to pay, dependent on the international price of the commodity. I think the cap may have been $50 dollars per barrel. And the drop in production coincided with the oil and gas price crash in 2014, which was caused by competition from shale oil and gas. GORTT changed, they thought te payment was unfair and negotiated a new price. And i do not think negotiating new exploration contracts would be that big an issue either. Contrary to what one journalist wrote last year, the demand for natural gas will only increase in the years to come. Shell anticipates that the demand for natural gas will increase by 50% by 2040.

A similar thing happened with steel production that year. China and Turkey flooded the market and prices collapsed. Both TATA and Acellor Mittal suffered significant losses and shut down plants in a few countries.
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sgtdjones 2/20/24, 5:13:13 PM
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debut: 2/16/17
34,949 runs

In reply to Jumpstart

Jumpy

A selection of recently renegotiated durations and terms are considered sensitive and have been withheld.

The above is what your present government noted. A secret deal. When attaining power 8 years ago they knew that Gas was declining from mature fields . Its common knowledge .
Pt Lisas at that time noted they will be mothballing plants . It takes approx. 8 years to drill find gas and bring such to markets. This is where T&T are now .

November'23, American engineering company McDermott ,received a limited notice to proceed for an Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation (EPCI) contract
The Loran Manatee field gas will not be available for approx 4 years . 10 plants at Pt Lisas are being mothballed. Manatee has estimated recoverable gas reserves of 1.871 Tcf. First gas from the project is projected for 2028, energy minister Stuart Young said in June.
“The Dragon field contains 3.2 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas. To consider its production potential, as a general rule, for every 1 tcf you have to produce 100 million cubic feet (mcf) per day. This means that the field will provide about half of Trinidad’s domestic demand of 700 mcf.”

Notice: 50% of domestic demand not export...key point.

The demand for natural gas will only increase in the years to come. Shell anticipates that the demand for natural gas will increase by 50% by 2050.
Bingo , you are correct. now think.....here are a few countries that have ramped up production.

Qatar...
LNG production capacity from 77mn tonnes/year to 126mn tonnes/year by 2026.
Proven reserves for 600 years .

Canada Kitimat

Capacity to produce 6.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG 2024, will be built, with an option to expand to four trains in the future, for a total estimated production capacity of 26 mtpa.
Canada is the world's fifth largest producer of natural gas and accounts for around five per cent of global production.As of 2022 Canada is estimated to have 1,368 trillion cubic feet of natural gas resources, an amount equal to over 200 years of current annual demand.

USA

United States. Five LNG export projects are currently under construction with a combined 15.7 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity—Golden Pass, Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage III, Rio Grande, and Port Arthur. Developers expect LNG exports from Golden Pass LNG and Plaquemines LNG to start in 2024.The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates in the Annual Energy Outlook 2023 that as of January 1, 2021, there were about 2,973 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of technically recoverable resources (TRR) of dry natural gas in the United States. Assuming the same annual rate of U.S. dry natural gas production in 2021 of about 34.52 Tcf, the United States has enough dry natural gas to last about 86 years.

Mexico
1.4 million mt/year floating export terminal is expected to start commercial operations offshore Altamira, Tamaulipas state, Mexico. When completed will supply 15 mmt per year.
2 more floating plants being designed.

Australia

At the end of 2022, natural gas production amounted to approximately 152.8 billion cubic meters in Australia.

Indonesia

In 2022, natural gas production in Indonesia amounted to 57.7 billion cubic meters

See the problem T&T will face.

Venezuela is flaring large amounts of natural gas over the last 4 decades. It has no infrastructure to bring it to its coastal waters or capture such.
Who will build the pipelines? It will take years for such to occur since proven gas reserves are located inland.
I see Venezuela building its own floating platforms to ship its gas.

Jumpy I have never voted in any T&T election....they are all crooks.

I own property and entities in T&T and pay taxes and employ citizens.

According to Professor Cudjoe lets ask the Prime Minister and Ministers to declare what was their wealth in 2015 and now to see if increased wealth resulted from crime escalations.
SnoopDog 2/20/24, 5:17:45 PM
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debut: 1/24/04
14,908 runs

In reply to sgtdjones

Dude, what y'all doing about all that obesity on the island?

I clicked on one of those live streaming videos y'all posted during during carnival and all I was seeing were Jimbo sized rolly polly women up and down the street.
sgtdjones 2/20/24, 5:22:02 PM
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debut: 2/16/17
34,949 runs

In reply to SnoopDog

T&T Carnival: losing something precious

This thread was ignored...

I wouldn't click on those video's for all the tea in China
fat ugly asses on display...Carnival has changed.evil

A poster wouldn't post such on threads ...evil

You just put me in more trouble with some posters ...cool
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Jumpstart 2/20/24, 5:32:23 PM
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debut: 11/30/17
9,230 runs

In reply to sgtdjones

i am absolutely positive all those countries had much, much more reserves of natural gas than us from the start of their exploitation of the resource. not comparable states
sgtdjones 2/20/24, 5:41:30 PM
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debut: 2/16/17
34,949 runs

In reply to Jumpstart

Jumpy, Jumpy

These countries were exploring over the last decade. It resulted in large resources that were found.
They realized it would take a decade to do such. T&T Government for 8 years were clueless.
They knew such well were maturing thus declines are inevitable. What did they do?
Other Countries weren't awaiting for contracts to be signed.
Jumpstart 2/20/24, 5:49:32 PM
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debut: 11/30/17
9,230 runs

In reply to sgtdjones

you're right. we weren't. In fact former NGC president, Frank Look Kin said the following

We eventually signed those contracts probably around 2016. Because we knew if we didn’t sign them in 2016, there was no way we could get gas by 2018 and 2019 because it takes over two years, so they’re about to get new gas supplies.

“Probably we should have negotiated new gas contracts in 2012,” he lamented.


https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/gas-pains-for-two-more-years-at-least/article_cd702bcc-b8d9-11ea-8c4a-1b3d1a46417a.html
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sgtdjones 2/20/24, 5:55:42 PM
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debut: 2/16/17
34,949 runs

In reply to Jumpstart

Great Jumpy

Maintaining unwavering concentration on the fundamental principles will enable you to develop into an exceptionally astute civil engineer.

Cheering for you from the sidelines.

You have what it takes to exceed my expectations; please do not let me down.