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Holy Crap: Harris up by 3 in Iowa!!!!

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FanAttick 11/2/24, 11:21:31 PM
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The best pollster in the USA

Blue Wave Alert!!!!!1
Chrissy 11/3/24, 12:06:26 AM
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In reply to FanAttick
She is going to win
cricketmad 11/3/24, 12:15:49 AM
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In reply to Chrissy

In my view it should be a case of anyone, but Trump !
ray 11/3/24, 12:42:20 AM
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Just saw that...but there was also an Emerson that had Trump up by 10, but the poll that has Harris up by 3 has been historically accurate. Keep in mind Emerson also used only land lines to conduct poll
Chrissy 11/3/24, 12:58:23 AM
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In reply to cricketmad
Indeed. But nuff women hating racists support him.
FanAttick 11/3/24, 10:34:56 AM
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- edited -
Walco 11/3/24, 12:51:52 PM
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In reply to ray

The Des Moines Register is the gold standard of polling in Iowa
sudden 11/3/24, 12:53:09 PM
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In reply to Walco

Are you saying Trump could lose Iowa?
Walco 11/3/24, 1:08:02 PM
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In reply to sudden

Yes, if the Des Moines Register polls says Trump is trailing Harris, he could lose Iowa.
sudden 11/3/24, 1:30:17 PM
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In reply to Walco

Any thoughts about how Florida may go?
hubert 11/3/24, 3:17:55 PM
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In reply to FanAttick

Trump and his MAGA cult will learn a big and lasting lesson.
Don't get women folks mad or united on any issue.

Women of voting age are mad as hell throughout America and the Harris campaign has been
working wonderfully with them on the Women's issue of Abortion etc.

Some of us men,know that reality...tick them off to their hurt and ...
no food, on table or on the linen.

Looks like the women's united is putting the CON in the dog house on Tuesday the 5th
prior to him heading to marlboro Country, prison, on his LOVE day, the 6th.smile
googley 11/3/24, 3:31:50 PM
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In reply to sudden

Any thoughts about how Florida may go?


Can we get rid of Rick Scott while Orange is getting his jumpsuit?
hubert 11/3/24, 3:35:39 PM
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In reply to googley

I would be so happy if either Texas or Florida is flipped BLUE including the down ballots.
The former is very tough but I think Florida is the better bet.
The ideal would be both but I am a realist .smile
Courtesy 11/3/24, 6:25:42 PM
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Two things:

(1) Ann Zelzer has gotten 86% of her polling correct since 2012.

(2) The 86 % of the times that she is correct with her polling she is slighly on the low side.

USAwide, this portends bad news for Trump and blowout is in the making.

..............................

Cultists can take heart in the fact that she has been wrong before.
birdseye 11/3/24, 6:37:26 PM
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In reply to googley

Can we get rid of Rick Scott while Orange is getting his jumpsuit?
i second that motion
Walco 11/4/24, 2:01:48 AM
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In reply to sudden

Harris winning Florida is possible because of the ballot initiatives to incorporate the protections of Roe v Wade into the Florida Constitution and legalize recreational marijuana.

Trump finally pay the price for the Dobbs decision on November 5.
InHindsight 11/4/24, 7:19:31 AM
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This one poll flies in the face of all logic and others polls - an outlier.

We don't have many days to find out.

But I understand the desperation
Walco 11/4/24, 11:28:58 AM
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In reply to Courtesy

(1) Ann Zelzer has gotten 86% of her polling correct since 2012.

Is this her presidential polling only or her overall polling?
Courtesy 11/4/24, 11:33:45 AM
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In reply to Walco

In a sample size of elections since 2012. She has gotten Presidential and Senate Races in Iowa wrong once.
Walco 11/4/24, 11:46:11 AM
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In reply to Courtesy

Thanks. I just heard that she got the Kerry v Bush race wrong in 2004.

Interestingly, 7% of the respondents in her poll refused to say who they voted for. So it's 47% Harris, 44% Trump, 2% undecided, and 7% None of Your Business (Trump?).

CORRECTION

THE 7% covers more than the none of your business crowd. It also includes people who will vote for RFK jr and Jill Stein, among others.
- edited -
Courtesy 11/4/24, 11:52:32 AM
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In reply to Walco

Yes she did. It was during her infancy years in the polling business. She uses a very simple methodology and her polls are forward looking. She does not use past elections in her modelling.
Courtesy 11/4/24, 12:05:30 PM
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In reply to Walco

...None of Your Business (Trump?)


If I am to put my own spin on it:

(1) There is a possibility of retribution if you say you voted or will vote for Kamala.
(2) The overwhelming migration to Dems because of the Dobbs decision.
(3) "None of your business" is how VP Harris appeals to women voters on the abortion issue during the campaign. So it's quite possibly a cryptic message.
- edited -
Walco 11/4/24, 12:26:08 PM
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In reply to Courtesy

That's an interesting take. We have gone from the secret Trump voter to the secret Harris voter.
Courtesy 11/4/24, 12:32:17 PM
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In reply to Walco

lol

I am reading for a Phd in my job.
Da-Vincy 11/4/24, 1:20:17 PM
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Anyone here ever been polled, or know anyone who has?
No one I know has ever known…directly or indirectly…a single person who has been contacted by a pollster.
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