debut: 2/16/17
38,480 runs
...To simpletons like Sodden
It’s a fair critique to assess BRICS+ not just by its growing economic metrics but also by the structural and financial realities that underpin its influence—or lack thereof—in comparison to the G7. While BRICS+ boasts impressive GDP growth and trade statistics, there are significant challenges that dampen its ability to wield true financial power in the global economy.
While it’s true that BRICS+ nations collectively outsize the G7 in population—roughly three times larger—their economic output does not scale accordingly. With such a massive population base, one might expect the bloc to command a far greater GDP advantage than it currently does. But there is a clear contrast between the BRICS+ and G7 countries in terms of per capita GDP. For instance, while China and India are economic behemoths in aggregate terms, their per capita income levels are far behind those of the United States or Germany. This disparity reflects a gap in productivity, technological advancement, and infrastructure development, which limits the bloc's ability to translate its demographic advantage into proportional economic might.
The BRICS+ bloc severely lacks the financial cohesion and dominance of the G7. The G7 economies are home to the world’s most stable and widely used currencies, including the US dollar, euro, and yen—currencies that underpin the global financial system. The US dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency, and much of global trade and debt is denominated in it. BRICS+, by contrast, lacks a single, unifying financial instrument or currency that could rival the dollar’s role. While there have been discussions of creating a BRICS currency or increasing trade in local currencies, these efforts remain nascent and face significant hurdles, such as trust, convertibility, and liquidity.
A critical point regarding US Treasury holdings. Many BRICS+ nations, particularly China, hold substantial reserves of US Treasury as part of their foreign exchange reserves. This reliance on US debt underscores the paradox of BRICS+ economies: while they aim to create an alternative global economic system, they remain deeply tied to and dependent on the existing one. If these nations were to sell off their US Treasury holdings in large quantities, it could destabilize their own currencies and economies. The knock-on effects—such as weakening investor confidence and capital flight—would likely outweigh any short-term geopolitical or economic gains. This dependency limits the bloc’s ability to act independently of the Western financial system.
Furthermore, the BRICS+ bloc struggles with internal fragmentation. Unlike the G7, which consists of relatively similar economies with shared governance structures and democratic principles, BRICS+ is a diverse collection of nations with vastly different political systems, economic models, and strategic interests. For example, India and China, two of the largest members, have a fraught relationship with significant border disputes. This lack of unity makes coordinated action difficult, particularly in areas like financial policy, trade agreements, or currency reform.
While BRICS+ commands impressive numbers on paper—population, GDP in aggregate, and merchandise export growth—it faces considerable structural and financial hurdles. Its reliance on US Treasuries, lack of a cohesive financial framework, and internal divisions diminish its ability to challenge the entrenched financial power of the G7. For now, BRICS+ remains more of an aspirational counterweight than a fully realized alternative to Western-led economic dominance. Its potential is real, but its challenges are equally formidable.
Sarge...