debut: 11/13/02
37,541 runs
You know, interestingly the drop in Treasury prices is NOT due to any type of selling by foreign governments. The selling is the result of forced liquidation of margin accounts in the 'basis trade'. Let me explain that.
In normal times, the futures price of a 10 year Treasury bond is higher than the current or 'spot' price of that bond. For example, today the June future is 111, while the spot price is 102. So, if you own a T-bond, you can sell the future at 111, and deliver the bond you paid 102 for to satisfy that future, and pocket the difference. (I note this spread is quite high, historically, reflecting the massive uncertainty in the market right now) These figures of "111" and "102" are percentage points above the bond's nominal "100" value. In the financial world, the percentage points are called 'basis points', and this trade of owning the bond and selling the future is called the 'basis trade'.
So you're a rich guy who wants even more, so you take your gains in stock, and use them as collateral to buy (on margin) bonds and sell the futures. It's like another 10% yield! And everything goes great until your stocks go into the toilet.
Since you bought everything on margin, and are, as we politely say, 'leveraged to the tits', you now have to start selling to meet your margin calls. When you sell your bond, you have to buy back your future as well, so you are adding supply to the bond market (increasing rates) and increasing the futures price (influencing future rates higher) at the same time. This is what has been happening over the last few weeks, not co-ordinated selling by other countries.
Yesterday's pause was to allow assorted billionaires a chance to get out and restructure before their forced liquidations crashed the entire market. Do not forget for one moment that the top 1% own 37% of ALL the assets in America, and a significantly higher percentage of financial assets, including stocks. Most of us, I'm sure, are in the "who cares?" camp, but letting them fall would really bring down the entire financial establishment, and I don't think even Trump wants that.