debut: 11/13/02
37,541 runs
In reply to SnoopDog
This entire tariff war is part of a broader strategy to contain and imprison China in a trading "sandbox" of America's own design, and utterly impoverish it:
1. The US plans to contain China's economic market share and trade flows to a narrow band of countries, ideally just China itself.
2. It intends to do this by intimidating the rest of the world into toeing the American line - that was the purpose of first subjecting the entire world to tariffs, then providing some relief for a limited 90-day period. The psychological impact is to pass this message to the RoW: "This is how it feels like when we hurt you with tariffs. Do you want to go through that again?". It's a powerful technique and appears to have resulted in most of the victims caving in to Trumps demands for per-country negotiations.
3. Trump's plan will then be to force each country into an exclusive trading agreement which will include clauses on how much trade (if any) it can conduct with China. This is the mechanism by which the U.S hopes will gradually (quickly) isolate China from the global trading system.
4. The U.S will apply tactics of intimidation against each of these countries up to and including threats of war, colour revolutions, bribery and blackmail of key officials and if necessary, assassination of stubborn leadership.
5. Most if not all of the West will cave quickly to these demands, then the tiny, dependent states like the pacific islands and some US-aligned South American states. African countries like Kenya and Tanzania, U.S sock-puppets will follow willingly.
6. As these countries quickly fall in line with the U.S demands, China will rapidly lose its investments in projects and currently ongoing ventures in those countries, finding itself slowly driven out of the markets of former partners.
7. Ostensibly, the U.S wants to become the center of global manufacturing, replacing China - or if not the actual center, then the control over the center of manufacturing (e.g, by controlling trade flows through the global shipping lanes).
The U.S will therefore seek to consolidate its control of the worlds key trade "chokepoints" (Red Sea, Hormuz, Panama Canal, Cape of Good Hope, Malacca, the Arctic etc. ...), while concurrently seeking to drive manufacturing out of China to it's own proxies or back to mainland U.S or Mexico.
8. Once China is contained, it will be forced to become a consumer economy: Captive Consumers for American controlled products, just like every American-dominated colony.
9. At the same time, the U.S will seek to hollow out China's technological base: By destroying it's market share, moving manufacturing outside of China, banning American and EU companies from doing business with China, it will attempt to stem the flow of I.P to China and stifle technological development there. Part of this strategy is hollowing out of Taiwan's chip-sector, which the U.S is currently trying to achieve carefully by moving Taiwan's Chip Fabs to the US before executing the controlled demolition of Taiwan.
Well, that's the plan. Whether it will succeed or not depends on how many states will bend over willingly rather than face up to the Superpower and wether China and Russia are willing to sit on their hands and do nothing.
The problem is, knowing the way the world works, China (and Russia) won't show much of a desire to defend vulnerable states against the U.S onslaught. Those countries will therefore have no incentive to rally around China to form a defensive trade network for mutual benefit.
They know that when the US Navy comes knocking, China and Russia won't have their backs, so better cave in early.
The one way out of this mess is the way neither China nor Russia have the nerve to adopt:
Going on the offensive and instigating conflicts among American allies and making sure the U.S is too busy dealing with manufactured crises to be a problem to the other superpowers. The U.S has been given much too much time to plan, develop creative schemes for causing problems to the globe, it's been given the luxury of taking the offensive initiative for too Long.
This entire tariff war is part of a broader strategy to contain and imprison China in a trading "sandbox" of America's own design, and utterly impoverish it:
1. The US plans to contain China's economic market share and trade flows to a narrow band of countries, ideally just China itself.
2. It intends to do this by intimidating the rest of the world into toeing the American line - that was the purpose of first subjecting the entire world to tariffs, then providing some relief for a limited 90-day period. The psychological impact is to pass this message to the RoW: "This is how it feels like when we hurt you with tariffs. Do you want to go through that again?". It's a powerful technique and appears to have resulted in most of the victims caving in to Trumps demands for per-country negotiations.
3. Trump's plan will then be to force each country into an exclusive trading agreement which will include clauses on how much trade (if any) it can conduct with China. This is the mechanism by which the U.S hopes will gradually (quickly) isolate China from the global trading system.
4. The U.S will apply tactics of intimidation against each of these countries up to and including threats of war, colour revolutions, bribery and blackmail of key officials and if necessary, assassination of stubborn leadership.
5. Most if not all of the West will cave quickly to these demands, then the tiny, dependent states like the pacific islands and some US-aligned South American states. African countries like Kenya and Tanzania, U.S sock-puppets will follow willingly.
6. As these countries quickly fall in line with the U.S demands, China will rapidly lose its investments in projects and currently ongoing ventures in those countries, finding itself slowly driven out of the markets of former partners.
7. Ostensibly, the U.S wants to become the center of global manufacturing, replacing China - or if not the actual center, then the control over the center of manufacturing (e.g, by controlling trade flows through the global shipping lanes).
The U.S will therefore seek to consolidate its control of the worlds key trade "chokepoints" (Red Sea, Hormuz, Panama Canal, Cape of Good Hope, Malacca, the Arctic etc. ...), while concurrently seeking to drive manufacturing out of China to it's own proxies or back to mainland U.S or Mexico.
8. Once China is contained, it will be forced to become a consumer economy: Captive Consumers for American controlled products, just like every American-dominated colony.
9. At the same time, the U.S will seek to hollow out China's technological base: By destroying it's market share, moving manufacturing outside of China, banning American and EU companies from doing business with China, it will attempt to stem the flow of I.P to China and stifle technological development there. Part of this strategy is hollowing out of Taiwan's chip-sector, which the U.S is currently trying to achieve carefully by moving Taiwan's Chip Fabs to the US before executing the controlled demolition of Taiwan.
Well, that's the plan. Whether it will succeed or not depends on how many states will bend over willingly rather than face up to the Superpower and wether China and Russia are willing to sit on their hands and do nothing.
The problem is, knowing the way the world works, China (and Russia) won't show much of a desire to defend vulnerable states against the U.S onslaught. Those countries will therefore have no incentive to rally around China to form a defensive trade network for mutual benefit.
They know that when the US Navy comes knocking, China and Russia won't have their backs, so better cave in early.
The one way out of this mess is the way neither China nor Russia have the nerve to adopt:
Going on the offensive and instigating conflicts among American allies and making sure the U.S is too busy dealing with manufactured crises to be a problem to the other superpowers. The U.S has been given much too much time to plan, develop creative schemes for causing problems to the globe, it's been given the luxury of taking the offensive initiative for too Long.
