Canadian company predicts UNC General Election win.......

Canadian research company predicts UNC General Election win

A recent data-driven forecast by Canadian consultancy firm Dunn Pierre Barnett and Company (DPBA) has predicted a narrow victory for the United National Congress (UNC) in the upcoming General Election on Monday.
The independent comprehensive report, which analysed over 5000 voter sentiment surveys, constituency-level data, and AI-assisted projections, suggested that the UNC, led by Kamla Persad-Bissessar, is poised to edge out the incumbent People’s National Movement (PNM) amid what it described as widespread socio-economic dissatisfaction and waning support among Afro-Trinidadian voters for the PNM.

In an interview with Guardian Media yesterday, Director of Research Dr Justine Pierre said the projection was determined by slim margins.“Based on our data and analysis we are predicting that the UNC would be victorious over the PNM.”The company, which has a record in predictive analysis, has projected the UNC to win 21 seats and the PNM, 20.

Previously, the DPBA has successfully conducted political forecasting, labour market research, and socio-economic studies across Canada, the Caribbean, and Africa.Notably, DPBA has provided electoral predictions for countries such as Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia, Grenada, and Barbados, achieving an accuracy rate exceeding 90% in past election cycles.

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Afro voters shifting to UNC

According to the study’s political overview, the recent resignation of now former prime minister Dr Keith Rowley and the subsequent appointment of Stuart Young introduced new dynamics into the political landscape. It said the redrawing of constituency boundaries by the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) added complexity to the electoral process.“Most people historically voted along racial lines. However, when we looked at the analysis and asked people about their voting history, we found out most UNC members traditionally voted for the UNC of a specific ethnic group. However, when we looked at the Afro group we found there was a large shift in the choice from the PNM to the UNC. From those we interviewed about 47% of a specific ethnic group indicated they will give their vote to the UNC.”

NACTA says race too close to call

Meanwhile, a recent North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) poll showed that Monday’s General Election is too close to call, with the PNM and UNC locked in a tight race.The survey, coordinated by Dr Vishnu Bisram and based on interviews with 1,200 likely voters across Trinidad, suggested that key swing constituencies remain highly competitive, and a small percentage of undecided voters could tip the balance.While the UNC has a slight edge in overall support and rising confidence in its leadership, the NACTA poll said the outcome will likely depend on results in a few battleground seats.