debut: 7/2/12
29,251 runs
2024 USA Presidential Elections in California
Analysis
Trump flipped 10 counties that were won by Biden in 2020: Butte, Fresno, Imperial, Inyo, Lake, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus. Of these 10, all except Butte and Inyo were also won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump’s wins in Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus marked the first time they voted for a Republican since George W. Bush in 2004, although all are fairly consistently Republican at the state level. Trump's win in Imperial (which is over 80% Hispanic) marked the first time it voted Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988, with Imperial being the most Hispanic county in California. Trump's win in Lake marked the first time it voted Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Trump was also the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 to win at least 30% in Los Angeles County. Trump managed to flip four congressional districts, two of which split tickets and elected Democrats. Trump's gains with Hispanics allowed him to cross 40% in Southern California for the first time since 2004 as well as trended the region to the right of the state. Trump’s gains among Hispanics in California also helped improve his margins in the state, also allowing him to carry 9 of the state's 11 Hispanic majority counties.[76] In contrast to the number of counties that switched from Democratic to Republican in this cycle, none flipped in the opposite direction, and only Alpine County increased its share of the Democratic vote from 2020.
Trump also gained ground with Asian American voters in California, with Asian Americans being almost entirely responsible for the rightward shift in areas lacking significant Hispanic populations, such as San Francisco.[77] In majority-Chinese Arcadia and Temple City, both communities in the San Gabriel Valley, Harris's margin dropped by 10% and 13% respectively.[78] Trump also gained in mostly Filipino Daly City by 15%.[79] Trump became the first Republican since 2004 to win the Inland Empire, California's third largest metropolitan area and a blue collar majority-Hispanic region that had been economically struggling.[80]
Trump achieved significant gains in Los Angeles, receiving 27% of the vote, the highest for a Republican candidate in the city since 1988. This was a marked improvement from 2020, when Trump garnered only 21%, and 2016, when he received just 16% of the vote in the city.[81] According to the New York Times 2024 precinct map, Trump's substantial gains in Los Angeles were largely attributed to increased support in Hispanic and Asian neighborhoods, although he made gains in nearly every single precinct in the city regardless.[82] These communities, which have traditionally leaned Democratic, showed growing support for Trump, especially in areas where economic concerns, cultural values, and opposition to some policies of the Democratic Party resonated with voters. Donald Trump also saw an increase in Latino support in California, garnering 38% of the Latino vote, compared to 29% in the 2020 election, according to Fox News voter analysis.[83] Trump won 42% of Latino men compared to Harris's 54% and Trump received 34% of Latina women compared to Harris's 63%—both major improvements from 2020.
Despite these results, Harris was able to hold onto historically Republican Orange County by a narrow margin. Harris also won every California county on the West Coast except for Del Norte County. She is also the first Democrat since John Kerry to win California despite carrying a minority of counties, winning 25 out of 58. Whereas Harris underperformed Biden's 2020 total by nearly 2 million, Trump narrowly surpassed his vote total from 2020, solidifying his base of support in the state at just over 6 million votes; this marked his third-highest vote total from any state in the country in 2024, only behind 6.4 million in Texas and 6.1 million in Florida.
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Well hopefully it is just the ones who voted for Harris that feel hard done.
Analysis
Trump flipped 10 counties that were won by Biden in 2020: Butte, Fresno, Imperial, Inyo, Lake, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus. Of these 10, all except Butte and Inyo were also won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump’s wins in Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus marked the first time they voted for a Republican since George W. Bush in 2004, although all are fairly consistently Republican at the state level. Trump's win in Imperial (which is over 80% Hispanic) marked the first time it voted Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988, with Imperial being the most Hispanic county in California. Trump's win in Lake marked the first time it voted Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Trump was also the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 to win at least 30% in Los Angeles County. Trump managed to flip four congressional districts, two of which split tickets and elected Democrats. Trump's gains with Hispanics allowed him to cross 40% in Southern California for the first time since 2004 as well as trended the region to the right of the state. Trump’s gains among Hispanics in California also helped improve his margins in the state, also allowing him to carry 9 of the state's 11 Hispanic majority counties.[76] In contrast to the number of counties that switched from Democratic to Republican in this cycle, none flipped in the opposite direction, and only Alpine County increased its share of the Democratic vote from 2020.
Trump also gained ground with Asian American voters in California, with Asian Americans being almost entirely responsible for the rightward shift in areas lacking significant Hispanic populations, such as San Francisco.[77] In majority-Chinese Arcadia and Temple City, both communities in the San Gabriel Valley, Harris's margin dropped by 10% and 13% respectively.[78] Trump also gained in mostly Filipino Daly City by 15%.[79] Trump became the first Republican since 2004 to win the Inland Empire, California's third largest metropolitan area and a blue collar majority-Hispanic region that had been economically struggling.[80]
Trump achieved significant gains in Los Angeles, receiving 27% of the vote, the highest for a Republican candidate in the city since 1988. This was a marked improvement from 2020, when Trump garnered only 21%, and 2016, when he received just 16% of the vote in the city.[81] According to the New York Times 2024 precinct map, Trump's substantial gains in Los Angeles were largely attributed to increased support in Hispanic and Asian neighborhoods, although he made gains in nearly every single precinct in the city regardless.[82] These communities, which have traditionally leaned Democratic, showed growing support for Trump, especially in areas where economic concerns, cultural values, and opposition to some policies of the Democratic Party resonated with voters. Donald Trump also saw an increase in Latino support in California, garnering 38% of the Latino vote, compared to 29% in the 2020 election, according to Fox News voter analysis.[83] Trump won 42% of Latino men compared to Harris's 54% and Trump received 34% of Latina women compared to Harris's 63%—both major improvements from 2020.
Despite these results, Harris was able to hold onto historically Republican Orange County by a narrow margin. Harris also won every California county on the West Coast except for Del Norte County. She is also the first Democrat since John Kerry to win California despite carrying a minority of counties, winning 25 out of 58. Whereas Harris underperformed Biden's 2020 total by nearly 2 million, Trump narrowly surpassed his vote total from 2020, solidifying his base of support in the state at just over 6 million votes; this marked his third-highest vote total from any state in the country in 2024, only behind 6.4 million in Texas and 6.1 million in Florida.
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Well hopefully it is just the ones who voted for Harris that feel hard done.
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